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Asian markets, oil prices extend losses on recession worries

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In early trade, Asian traders were struggling
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Asian markets fell again Monday and oil prices extended losses on growing fears that central bank moves to rein in soaring inflation will induce a recession.

The losses come after a sell-off last week fuelled by the Federal Reserve’s sharp interest rate hike last week — the biggest in nearly 30 years — and a warning of more to come, while increases in Britain and Switzerland added to the gloom.

And while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw gains on Friday, there is a sense that indexes still have some way down to go before they find a bottom, with economic data suggesting economies are beginning to feel the pinch.

Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester added to the worry, saying that the risk of a recession in the United States was increasing and it would take several years to bring inflation down from four decade highs to the bank’s two percent target.

She told CBS’s “Face The Nation” on Sunday that while she was not predicting a contraction, the Fed’s decision not to act sooner to fight rising prices was hurting the economy.

In early trade, Asian traders were struggling, with Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Seoul, Taipei, Jakarta and Wellington all in the red.

Analysts warned there was likely to be more pain ahead for traders as the Ukraine war drags on and uncertainty continues to reign.

“Central banks’ hawkish rhetoric and concerns over a global economic slowdown/recession (are) not helping sentiment and at this stage it is hard to see a turn in fortunes until we see evidence of a material ease in inflationary pressures,” said National Australia Bank’s Rodrigo Catril.

And Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management added: “Most of these major central banks are praying for some relief from inflation and hoping the data falls in line, but unless there is a detent in the Ukraine -Russia war, escalation will continue to drive energy price fears so it could be a tough road ahead.”

Still, oil prices fell further Monday after suffering a hefty drop Friday caused by demand worries caused by a possible recession.

However, US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said prices could continue to surge if the European Union cuts off imports of the commodity from Russia in response to the Ukraine war.

She said Joe Biden had called on global suppliers to ramp up output to help temper the price rises, with the president to discuss the issue at an upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia next month.

– Key figures at around 0245 GMT –

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.7 percent at 25,534.68 (close)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.4 percent at 21,001.43

Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.3 percent at 3,308.08

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 134.85 yen from 134.99 yen late Friday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2219 from $1.2221

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0509 from $1.0493

Euro/pound: UP at 86.00 pence from 85.83 pence

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.5 percent at $108.98

Brent North Sea crude: DOWN 0.5 percent at $112.56 a barrel

New York – Dow: DOWN 0.1 percent at 29,888.78 (close)

London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.4 percent at 7,016.25 (close) 

— Bloomberg News contributed to this story —

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US recession not ‘inevitable,’ Treasury secretary says

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US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks at a policy forum in Washington on June 9, 2022
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A recession in the United States is not “inevitable” but the economy is likely to slow, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday, days after the US Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, raising fears of a contraction.

“I expect the economy to slow” as it transitions to stable growth, she said on ABC’s “This Week,” but “I don’t think a recession is at all inevitable.”

The US economy has recovered strongly from the damage wrought by Covid-19, but soaring inflation and supply-chain snarls made worse by the war in Ukraine have increased pessimism.

Wall Street stocks tumbled after the US central bank, seeking to cool inflation, on Wednesday raised the benchmark borrowing rate by 0.75 percentage points, the sharpest rise in nearly 30 years.

And economists see worrying signs that consumer confidence is weakening, with spending on services affected most sharply.

People are beginning to hold off on vacation plans — domestic flight bookings were down 2.3 percent last month, Adobe Analytics reported — and are cutting back on restaurant visits, haircuts and home repairs.

– Inflation ‘unacceptably high’ –

Yellen conceded that “clearly inflation is unacceptably high,” attributing it partly to the war in Ukraine, which has pushed up energy and food prices.

But she said she did not believe “a dropoff in consumer spending is the likely cause of a recession.” 

The US labor market is “arguably the strongest of the postwar period,” Yellen said, and she predicted a slowing of inflation in coming months.

For Fed chair Jerome Powell — who succeeded Yellen in that position — to control inflation without weakening the labor market will take “skill and luck,” she said, before adding, “but I believe it’s possible.”

The US economy contracted by 1.5 percent in the first quarter of this year, its first drop since 2020, and early indications point to a continued slowing in key sectors including manufacturing, real estate and retail sales.  

A recent survey of 750 company executives by the Conference Board found 76 percent believed a recession is looming, or has already begun.

A recent analysis from the non-profit business group predicted a period of “stagflation” — stagnant growth coupled with inflation — in 2023.

Economist Larry Summers, who served as Treasury secretary from 1999 to 2001, said a wide range of indicators — market volatility, interest rates and inflation among them — suggest a recession on the horizon.

“All of that tells me that… the dominant probability would be that by the end of next year we would be seeing a recession in the American economy,” Summers told NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

– ‘Pain’ at the pump –

For now, Americans are trying to cope with some historically sharp price increases. The cost of gas at the pump, now around $5 a gallon, has roughly doubled in only two years. 

Yellen was asked about proposals for a temporary suspension in federal gas taxes, and expressed openness.

US President Joe Biden “wants to do anything he possibly can to help consumers,” she said. “And that’s an idea that’s certainly worth considering.”

The White House recently confirmed Biden will travel to major oil producer Saudi Arabia during a Mideast trip next month.

The president is “very concerned about what people are experiencing at the pump,” Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told CNN Sunday. 

“Saudi Arabia is head of OPEC and we need to have increased production so that everyday citizens in America will not be feeling this pain that they’re feeling.”

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US recession not ‘inevitable,’ Treasury secretary says

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US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks at a policy forum in Washington on June 9, 2022
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A recession in the United States is not “inevitable,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday, just days after the US Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, raising fears of an economic contraction.

“I expect the economy to slow” as it transitions to stable growth, she said on ABC’s “This Week,” but “I don’t think a recession is at all inevitable.”

The US economy has recovered strongly from the damage wrought by Covid-19, but soaring inflation and supply-chain snarls exacerbated by the war in Ukraine have increased pessimism. 

Wall Street stocks tumbled after the US central bank on Wednesday raised the benchmark borrowing rate by 0.75 percentage points, the sharpest rise in nearly 30 years.

And economists see worrying signs that consumer confidence is weakening, with people beginning to hold off on vacation plans, dining out or doing home repairs.

Yellen conceded that “clearly inflation is unacceptably high,” attributing it partly to the war in Ukraine, which has pushed up energy and food prices.

But she said she did not believe that “a dropoff in consumer spending is the likely cause of a recession.” 

Yellen argued that the US labor market is “arguably the strongest of the postwar period” and she predicted that the pace of inflation would slow in coming months.

She acknowledged, however, that as Fed chair Jerome Powell works to control inflation while preserving labor-market strength, “That’s going to take skill and luck.”

Soaring gas prices — at some $5 a gallon, they have roughly doubled in a few years — are a pressing concern for many Americans.

Asked about proposals for a temporary suspension in federal gas taxes, Yellen expressed openness.

US President Joe Biden “wants to do anything he possibly can to help consumers,” she said. “And that’s an idea that’s certainly worth considering.”

As to whether Biden might move further to lower consumer prices by lifting tariffs on Chinese goods, Yellen demurred.

Reworking the Donald Trump-era tariffs “is something that’s under consideration,” she said.

“I don’t want to get ahead of where the policy process is.” 

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Italy’s Eni joins giant Qatar gas project after Russian cuts

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Qatar's Energy Minister and president and CEO of QatarEnergy Saad Sherida al-Kaabi (R) and Claudio Descalzi, CEO of Italian multinational oil and gas company ENI, attend the signing ceremony for their joint venture
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Italian company Eni on Sunday joined Qatar Energy’s project to expand production from the world’s biggest natural gas field, days after Russia slashed supplies to Italy.

Eni will own a stake of just over three percent in the $28 billion North Field East project, Qatar Energy’s CEO said at a signing ceremony in Doha.

Qatar announced France’s TotalEnergies as its first, and largest, foreign partner on the development last week, with a 6.25 percent share. 

More companies are set to be named. 

“Today I’m pleased… to announce the selection of Eni as a partner in this unique strategic project,” said Energy Minister Saad Sherida al-Kaabi, who is also president and CEO of state-owned Qatar Energy.

The project’s LNG — the cooled form of gas that makes it easier to transport — is expected to come on line in 2026. It will help Qatar increase its liquefied natural gas production by more than 60 percent by 2027, TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanne told AFP last week.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has injected urgency into efforts around the world to develop new energy sources as Western countries try to reduce their reliance on Russia.

On Friday, Eni said it would receive only 50 percent of the gas requested from Russia’s Gazprom, the third day running of reduced supplies. Rome has accused Gazprom of peddling “lies” over the cuts.

“We have a lot of things to learn from your leadership and also from your standards and from your ability to adapt to very difficult circumstances,” Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi told his Qatari counterpart.

Qatar Energy estimates that the North Field, which extends under the Gulf sea into Iranian territory, holds about 10 percent of the world’s known gas reserves.

Kaabi refused to divulge how many more partners will be announced. Industry sources have discussed ExxonMobil, Shell and ConocoPhillips, while Bloomberg reported this week that Chinese companies were in talks.

South Korea, Japan and China have become the main markets for Qatar’s LNG but since an energy crisis hit Europe last year, the Gulf state has helped Britain with extra supplies and also announced a cooperation deal with Germany.

Europe has in the past rejected the long-term deals that Qatar seeks for its energy but the Ukraine conflict has forced a change in attitude.

“Qatar is the lowest cost source of supply at the moment and  therefore it’s attractive to the majors (companies),” Daniel Toleman, an analyst at resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie, told AFP.

“So these companies want to be involved in those projects.”

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