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Asian markets’ rally fizzles as rates, inflation fears return

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Tokyo's stock market was among the losers in early trading Tuesday
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Asian markets mostly fell Tuesday as investors struggled to maintain a recent rally while weighing central banks’ inflation-fighting rate hikes and the possibility of a recession.

Renewed concerns about thinning supplies and rising demand also helped push oil even higher, after enjoying a big bounce Monday. 

Shares rallied last week as the prospect of a contraction saw traders lower their bets on how long finance chiefs will tighten monetary policy, with some commentators eyeing possible cuts at the back end of 2023.

But the global advance fizzled Monday in New York, and on Tuesday, Asian investors ran out of puff. 

Meanwhile, analysts said there was a worry on trading floors that the upcoming earnings season could see a lot of firms lower their forecasts for the year ahead.

“There is a clear lack of conviction by investors, with light trading volumes favouring the notion of an exhausted market with big declines set to be recorded this quarter, notwithstanding the outsized gains logged last week,” said National Australia Bank’s Rodrigo Catril.

Hong Kong was among the big losers, with tech firms reversing the previous day’s surge, while there were also losses in Shanghai, Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei, Jakarta and Wellington.

Sydney and Manila bucked the trend.

Another pledge by the central People’s Bank of China to provide support to the world’s number two economy had little impact on sentiment.

Still, some commentators remain relatively upbeat as the second half of the year approaches.

Market strategist Louis Navelier said in a note: “While it’s sobering that the first half of the year is the worst since 1970, history also says that when the first half of the year is down at least 15 percent the second half of the year is up every single time with an average return of 24 percent.”

And Ben Laidler, a global markets strategist at eToro, added that a lot of the expected economic weakness had been largely factored in by dealers.

“Much is already discounted by markets, which may be in ‘bad news is good news’ mode, as a slowdown cools inflation and interest rate fears,” he said.

“A ‘less bad’ gradual easing of inflation risks is possible, as is a slowdown — not recession — driving a ‘U-shaped’ rebound. The focus for investors is on cheap and defensive assets while managing rising risks.”

Oil prices jumped, building on a rally that has seen Brent and WTI pile on more than eight percent since Wednesday. Both main contracts had fallen heavily earlier in the month on recession worries.

The gains have come on the back of a pick-up in demand from China as it gradually emerges from lockdowns, while supply fears have been raised by political crises in producers Libya and Ecuador.

– Key figures at around 0230 GMT –

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.2 percent at 26,830.69 (break)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.8 percent at 22,046.66

Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.4 percent at 3,366.48

West Texas Intermediate: UP 1.1 percent at $110.72 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: UP 1.1 percent at $116.39 per barrel

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 135.25 yen from 135.48 yen on Monday

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0575 from $1.0583

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2263 from $1.2268

Euro/pound: DOWN at 86.22 pence from 86.24 pence

New York – Dow: DOWN 0.2 percent at 31,438.26 (close)

London – FTSE 100: UP 0.7 percent at 7,258.32 (close) 

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Sony trims annual profit forecast after Bungie purchase

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Sony Group now predicts net profit for 2022-23 will total 800 billion yen
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Sony trimmed its annual net profit forecast on Friday, partly due to acquisition expenses including the purchase of US game studio Bungie, creator of hits like “Halo” and “Destiny”.

The PlayStation maker announced in February it would buy Bungie for $3.6 billion, weeks after rival Microsoft unveiled a landmark pact to acquire “Call of Duty” maker Activision Blizzard.

Microsoft says its massive merger, valued at around $69 billion, will make it the third-largest gaming company by revenue, behind Tencent and Sony — marking a major shift in the booming gaming world.

Sony Group now predicts net profit for 2022-23 will total 800 billion yen ($6 billion), down from the 830 billion yen previously forecast.

It said the expected increase in acquisition expenses was “mainly due to the acquisition of Bungie, Inc. being completed earlier than the assumed timing”.

Lower sales of games by non-house developers will likely dent its overall sales figures this financial year, it said, but this would be “partially offset” by a weaker yen.

Exchange rates also boosted the conglomerate’s movie segment, chief financial officer Hiroki Totoki told reporters.

Customer traffic at US theatres has returned to pre-pandemic levels in some weeks, and Sony Pictures is hoping to score another box-office win after the runaway success of “Spider-Man: No Way Home”.

“We have high hopes for ‘Bullet Train’ featuring Brad Pitt,” Totoki said.

The movie division expects higher sales for anime streaming, “including the impact of the acquisition of Crunchyroll”, the world’s largest online library of Japanese animation.

– PlayStation 5 sales steady –

In the April to June quarter, the Japanese conglomerate posted a three percent year-on-year rise in net profit to 218 billion yen, with sales up around two percent to 2.3 trillion yen.

Sony has faced challenges rolling out its PlayStation 5 console, which remains difficult to get hold of more than 18 months since its launch in November 2020, in part due to pandemic supply chain disruption and the global chip shortage.

Sony sold 11.5 million PS5s last year, and in May Totoki said the firm was adapting to try and weather ongoing supply chain issues, including Covid-19 lockdowns in China. 

For the PS5, “the problem is more about supply than demand. The company is also facing problems transporting its products,” Hideki Yasuda, senior analyst at Toyo Securities, told AFP before the earnings release.

Meanwhile “the yen has turned lower in this quarter. This should be positive for the company,” he said, adding that a US economic slowdown could open up shipping spots, even though it poses risks overall for businesses like Sony.

In the first quarter of this financial year, Sony sold 2.4 million PS5 units, similar to the same period last year when it sold 2.3 million.

Sony also said last month it is launching a new brand that will offer PC gaming gear.

The gaming peripherals market of items used by players was valued at $3.88 billion globally in 2019 according to Grand View Research.

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Asian markets rise as US data boosts hopes of slower Fed hikes

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The prospect of a slower pace of Fed rate hikes has weighed on the dollar, which has fallen below 135 yen for the first time since the start of July, having hit a 24-year peak near 140 yen two weeks ago
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Asian stocks rose Friday after data showing another contraction in the US economy boosted hopes that the Federal Reserve will slow its pace of interest rate hikes.

After an extended period of pessimism on trading floors fuelled by soaring inflation and the central bank’s monetary tightening campaign, investors are beginning to speculate that the market may have reached its nadir.

The world’s top economy shrank 0.9 percent in April-June following a 1.6 percent retreat in the first quarter as it was buffeted by the four-decade spike in inflation and rising borrowing costs.

But the reading was taken as a sign of good news, as it could give the Fed room to take its foot off the pedal, with Treasury yields — considered a barometer of future interest rates — easing.

Officials are expected to continue lifting rates, but analysts estimate they will announce a 50-basis-point rise in September, compared with 75 at the past two meetings.

And analysts said the quick, sharp pace of increases would allow the bank to begin cutting sooner in 2023 while others said any recession would likely only be shallow and short.

The news saw all three main indexes on Wall Street rally more than one percent, with tech firms — which are susceptible to higher rates — leading the way.

The gains extended a rally Wednesday that came after Fed chief Jerome Powell hinted that the bank could start to take it easier in its tightening.

Most of Asia followed suit, with Tokyo, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei, Jakarta and Wellington all up. However, Hong Kong dropped and Shanghai struggled.

The prospect of US rates not rising as fast as previously expected hit the dollar, which has soared in recent months against most other currencies. 

The greenback dropped below 135 yen Thursday for the first time since July 6, having hit a 24-year high of 139.39 yen just two weeks ago.

A second successive contraction is widely considered a technical recession, though it is not officially considered so in the United States until identified as such by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

But while debate rages over that issue, the general consensus is that the economy is struggling.

“The more important point is that the economy has quickly lost steam in the face of four-decade high inflation, rapidly rising borrowing costs, and a general tightening in financial conditions,” Sal Guatieri, of BMO Capital Markets, wrote.

The retreat in the US economy comes as China also struggles, hit by painful Covid-induced lockdowns in major cities including Shanghai and Beijing that hammered all sectors and supply chains.

On Thursday, the country’s leadership offered a dour assessment of the world’s number two economy but offered no plans to stimulate growth, leaving traders disappointed.

– Key figures at around 0230 GMT –

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.5 percent at 27,944.55 (break)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.4 percent at 20,343.08

Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.4 percent at 3,269.18

Dollar/yen: UP at 134.36 yen from 134.25 yen Thursday

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0193 from $1.0197 

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2167 from $1.2177 

Euro/pound: UP at 83.77 pence from 83.70 pence

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.8 percent at $97.16 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: UP 0.3 percent at $107.50 per barrel

New York – Dow: UP 1.0 percent at 32,529.63 (close)

London – FTSE 100: FLAT at 7,345.25 (close) 

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Amazon tops expectations as quarterly sales climb

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Amazon announces expectation-beating results
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E-commerce colossus Amazon on Thursday reported that its sales in the recently ended quarter grew more than expected despite inflation and other economic turmoil.

Amazon sales topped $121 billion in the quarter, but the company logged a loss of $2 billion dollars as it continued to work to rein in costs — but its shares still jumped 10 percent in after-hours trading.

A crowded period of earnings from the world’s biggest tech firms has mostly disappointed, but investors have seemed relieved the news was not worse.

Recession fears, a strong dollar, shrinking advertising budgets and inflation — tech companies’ pandemic-era booms have now tipped into a downturn.

Microsoft and Facebook-owner Meta both cited the harm to their business from a strong dollar, with the social media giant pointing to the greenback’s role in the firm’s first year-on-year revenue decline since going public in 2012.

In addition to the generally bumpy economic times, firms such as Netflix and Meta are fighting fierce competition from rivals — and both reported losing some ground.

Meta lost about two million monthly users between quarters, and Netflix shed nearly a million paying customers, which was less than expected.

Yet Netflix stock is up about a percent in the past five days, with investors potentially hopeful after the firm projected a coming rebound in subscribers.

Markets seemed similarly assuaged despite Google parent Alphabet missing on revenue and profit.

The Silicon Valley giant’s bad news was not unexpected, as the flow of online ad dollars that fuels the company’s fortunes has slowed as inflation, war and other troubles vex the overall economy.

“Still, with its tremendous market share in search advertising, Google is relatively well positioned to weather the rough waters that lie ahead,” said analyst Evelyn Mitchell.

As advertisers have tightened their belts, and Apple’s privacy changes have bitten into firms’ sales of costly but highly targeted ads, the damage was uneven.

Meta’s income has taken a beating, and with a share price that has lost about half its value since February, it’s clear that investors are still wary about the company’s future.

Analysts noted Meta’s reported 14 percent drop in average price per ad was a steep change coming on top of the first quarter, when ad prices dipped 8 percent.

“The good news, if we can call it that, is that its competitors in digital advertising are also experiencing a slowdown,” said analyst Debra Aho Williamson.

Snapchat’s parent firm, for example, reported that its loss in the recently ended quarter nearly tripled to $422 million despite revenue increasing 13 percent under conditions “more challenging” than expected.

“We are not satisfied with the results we are delivering, regardless of the current headwinds,” California-based Snap said in a letter to investors last week.

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