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Price spike: Higher fuel prices test US economy

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1 year ago

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Drivers of long-haul delivery trucks, such as this one pictured January 2018, are contending with surging US gas prices
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Surging energy costs are being felt across the US economy with varying effects. Some consumers are absorbing higher costs, while others are shifting behavior or cutting back.

Here’s a sampling of how the story is playing out in different sectors.

– Trucker sees austerity –

As he contends with surging fuel prices, truck driver Lamar Buckwalter sees signs all around that consumers are cutting back. 

Demand for refrigerated pet food — a torrid business just three months ago — has virtually disappeared. Humans are also shifting their own diets, ordering less high-end meats like veal and crab cakes.

“People are starting to cut off the extras,” said Buckwalter, a third-generation trucker who lives in Pennsylvania. “They’re not buying filet mignon steak.”

The last time he fueled up, Buckwalter spent $5.79 a gallon for diesel, more than double the price from a year ago, a shift exacerbated by lower job rates as demand for trucking services cools.

Mitigating things a bit is Buckwalter’s membership in a national small trucker association that offers discounted fuel. He can also pass on a fraction of the fuel price spike to consumers.

But the pain from fueling up is “enough to make a preacher man curse,” said Buckwalter, who has been turning down trips that pay insufficiently.

He is also planning to tighten the belt on perks for his three employees, such as a summer family picnic. 

“We’ll still do Christmas bonuses,” he said. “Unfortunately, I have to cut back where I can.”

– Tough times for taxis –

Also taking a hit is Rutz Alliance, a New York taxi driver who feels the pinch daily.

“I used to put $25 of gas every day,” Alliance told AFP. “Now it’s up to $45.”

That computes to weekly pay of about $600 to $650, one-third less than the pre-pandemic amount.

“We’re trying to live. We have no choice. Inflation is all over. Rent, food, everything, but it’s take it or leave it.”

Dubbing the jump in prices an “emergency,” the New York Taxi Workers Alliance called in March for a 75-cent temporary fuel surcharge. But city officials have not taken action thus far.

– Airlines pass on the pain –

Airlines have been among the sectors most directly affected by spiking energy prices, with jet fuel prices jumping almost 50 percent since mid-March, according to Argus.

That would normally amount to a huge drag on the industry, given that fuel and labor are two major sources of costs.

“The rule of thumb in this industry is that you can pass through two-thirds of a fuel price increase within three to six months, the full amount within six to 12 months,” said Savanthi Syth, an industry expert at Raymond James. 

But in a twist of fortunes in a pandemic-dominated era, airlines are benefitting from “pent-up demand” of consumers desiring travel after more than two years of being hemmed in.

Airline tickets are currently up 38 percent compared with the level of the year prior, with industry executives saying they are having no trouble passing on the hit from higher fuel costs.

– A higher bar on vacations –

For Chayzz Devyant, one casualty of spiking gasoline prices has been a summer visit to Atlantic City.

Just traveling back and forth to the casino town would cost some $162 in gas, on top of lodging costs.

“Big Oil is to blame,” said Devyant, who hopes to work from home to save on fuel costs. 

But travel experts still expect a busy summer even if more consumers like Devyant cut some trips.

“We are seeing mixed messages. Oil prices obviously have an effect,” said Aaron Szyf, economist for the US Travel Association.

“But pent up demand is so high that hotels/attractions/national parks/flights are all expected to be at full capacity this summer.”

– Electric vehicles get a closer look –

Higher gasoline prices have prompted greater interest from consumers in electric vehicles (EV). Since January, website visits to EV options have soared 73 percent, according to Cox Automotive.

However, the share of visits to EVs remains a relatively small 5.7 percent of overall page views, according to Cox.

Moreover, the shortage of semiconductors and other key supplies has left car dealerships with limited inventories, crimping sales. 

In May, Toyota and Lexus sold 46,000 hybrid vehicles, down 17 percent from the year-ago period amid tight supplies.

At Tesla, the top-selling EV maker in the United States, the wait time is at least three months for delivery of a Model 3 and six for the Model Y.

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1 in 5 companies founded in 2021 closed within the year—a story all too familiar in the US

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4 days ago

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September 18, 2023

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PlanPros investigated what it takes for a business to make it through its first year—a milestone that 1 in 5 companies don't achieve.
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Whether a startup is successful in its first year depends on a variety of factors—from industry type and location to funding and money management strategies. PlanPros investigated what it takes for a business to make it through its first year—a milestone that 1 in 5 companies don’t achieve.

Entrepreneurship is a core tenet of American culture. As many as 55% of Americans have started at least one business in their lifetime, according to a 2019 survey by the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor consortium at Babson College. In fact, there are over 33 million small businesses—which have fewer than 500 employees—in operation today according to estimates from the Small Business Administration. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that since 1994, about 20% of new businesses have not survived their first year.

The success of a small business affects more than just the business owners’ livelihood. According to the SBA Small Business Facts Report, small businesses are responsible for 2 in 3 jobs created in the past 25 years. Additionally, the SBA estimates that small businesses are responsible for about 44% of all economic activity in the United States.

Market research

According to a 2022 Skynova survey of 492 startup founders, 58% said they wished they had done more market research before starting their business. Put simply, market research involves evaluating how likely a product or service is to be received well by its intended customers.

Where a startup is based can have a significant effect on its finances. Business taxes vary across states, as does the availability of various government grant and loan programs designed to aid small businesses. Residents’ purchasing power also ranges geographically. The first-year failure rate for small businesses by state ranged from 18.2% to 36.6% in 2019, the most recent data available—California had the lowest first-year failure rate, while Washington-based startups faced the highest first-year failure rate.

Startups can face certain advantages and disadvantages depending on the nature of their industry as well. According to the Small Business Funding lending agency, small businesses in the health care industry have the highest chance of surviving to at least their fifth year at 60%. Conversely, small businesses in the transportation industry have the lowest chance of surviving through their fifth year at 30%.

Funding and well-managed cash flow

The primary reason new businesses fail is due to a lack of cash or available financial support in its absence, according to the aforementioned Skynova report. In 2022, 47% of startup failures were attributed to a lack of financing or investors, while running out of money contributed to 44% of failures in the same year. A 2019 study funded by the SBA of 1,000 startup small business owners attributes 82% of startup failures to cash flow problems and mismanagement. These data point out the importance of adhering to a strict budget and limiting expenses as much as possible in the first year.

It is also important to identify potential sources of funding or support in advance of any immediate need. This can help prevent running into unsustainable growth. Many government programs exist to help startups survive, including state and federal grants, some of which are designated for certain demographics and industries. 

Even after a business is fairly well established, it is important to monitor cash flow closely. Businesses need to survive well beyond just the first year. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, roughly half of small businesses fail within five years. After 15 years, about 3 in 4 small businesses will have failed.

But the end of a company is not necessarily the end of entrepreneurship for every small business owner. A study by University of Michigan and Stanford economists suggests that business owners who start a second business after their first failures are more likely to succeed on their second attempt.

Story editing by Jeff Inglis. Copy editing by Tim Bruns.

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Consumer retail spending holds steady as recession worries drag on

Published

7 days ago

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September 15, 2023

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Shopdog analyzed spending data from the Census to illustrate how American consumers are holding up under continued inflation.  
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Spending for in-person and online goods and services has moderated over the past year after seeing outsized growth during the early years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The decline in sales growth has forced some retailers to roll out discounts. Others warn sales could drop further as consumers feel the squeeze of college debt payments returning this fall and still-rising prices for everything from weekly groceries to back-to-school clothing.

Shopdog analyzed spending data from the Census to illustrate consumers’ reaction to inflated prices and higher borrowing costs in 2023.

Retail sales data can offer broad inferences about the spending habits of consumers in the U.S. economy and can serve as an indicator of economic health. Business leaders and Federal Reserve officials watch the data closely for signs that consumers could be struggling with their finances.

The COVID-19 pandemic and job loss caused the economy to contract rapidly and enter a recession, briefly hurting retail sales. With the help of stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment payments, Americans bounced back—and bought a ton of stuff: sporting goods, electronics, furniture, and new homes. And as COVID-19 vaccines rolled out, consumers shifted to spending on previously delayed travel.

Throughout 2021, a flood of stimulus money and rapidly rising profits contributed to a red-hot economy in which prices were rising faster than at any time since the 1980s. By 2022, Federal Reserve officials began raising interest rates in an attempt to cool down rising prices. So far in 2023, growth in sales has started to slow as consumers muddle through an increasingly expensive world.


A line chart with two trend lines. At the bottom, e-commerce sales as a portion of overall retail sales show a slight growth trend. At the top of the chart, a line for retail spending in store shows sales growth plateauing.

Dom DiFurio // Shopdog

Pandemic boom in the rearview as inflation erodes spending power

Census data shows retail sales growth has slowed since federal officials began taking their fight against inflation seriously last summer. 

Overall inflation was still elevated at 3.2% year over year in July, stubbornly higher than the 2% goal Federal Reserve officials want to achieve. The Fed began raising its benchmark interest rates in April 2022 to make it more expensive for consumers and businesses to borrow money for things like new business, a home mortgage, or a new vehicle. 

When the Fed raises its interest rates, banks follow. A monetary policy like this aims to slow down an economy flush with cash so prices grow slower. It’s a policy experts argue causes necessary pain for consumers in the short term to avoid perpetual inflation in the long term.

So far, the Fed has seen inflation cool from a modern high of 9% last year, but in late August, officials said they need to see it decrease further before they pause rate hikes.

A line chart showing ecommerce sales as a percentage of overall retail sales. The trend line spikes above 15% in 2020, then comes down a few percentage points in the following years, returning to upward growth in 2023.

Dom DiFurio // Shopdog

Online retail spending is up 7.5% over summer 2022

Even as overall spending flattens, Americans’ online shopping habits have reverted to pre-pandemic trends. Consumer spending has steadily shifted from retail to e-commerce since Jeff Bezos had the idea to sell books online in 1994. That steady growth got a big boost in 2020 when online shopping often became the only way to spend money.

After correcting downward as shoppers ventured out of their homes, the portion of retail sales happening online is growing again at pre-pandemic rates despite the overall challenges faced by consumers.

However, signs are emerging from retailers that the typical American may be unable to keep spending on goods and services the same way in the second half of 2023.

A couple of shoppers inside a Dick's Sporting Goods store.

QualityHD // Shutterstock

Stalled spending growth is cold comfort for nervous small retailers

Retail giant Walmart is raising its profit expectation through the end of the year, reporting gains in e-commerce sales. However, their projections starkly contrast with others in the retail space that are beginning to report gloomy forecasts.

Big sportswear retailers such as Dick’s Sporting Goods, which usually benefit from a surge in sales during back-to-school season, have cut their profit expectations for the rest of the year.

And optimism is low, according to a 2022 industry report by the National Federation of Independent Businesses, which represents the interests of America’s small businesses. Most small businesses believe the country is already in a recession despite no official call by the National Bureau of Economic Research, and they expect lower sales through the end of the year.

Story editing by Ashleigh Graf. Copy editing by Kristen Wegrzyn.

This story originally appeared on Shopdog and was produced and
distributed in partnership with Stacker Studio.

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The county in every state with the most new business applications

Published

2 weeks ago

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September 11, 2023

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PlanBuildr used Census Bureau data to find the county in each state with the most business applications per capita in 2022.
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Entrepreneurship emerged in a big way over the past three years, and founders are not slowing down.

To get a more comprehensive view of where new businesses may have the most impact in coming years, PlanBuildr used Census Bureau data to find the county in each state with the most business applications per capita in 2022. 

Business applications have fallen from highs in 2021 but remain well above pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels at over 400,000 applications per month. There were a little under 5.1 million business applications in 2022, compared to a record-breaking 5.4 million in 2021 and 4.4 million in 2020. Through June, there have been 2.65 million applications, meaning 2023 is on pace to rival the 2021 spike.

Prior to the pandemic, entrepreneurship had been in a lull for decades. In 2018 and 2019, a typical month would see fewer than 300,000 business applications, and in prior years the levels were even lower, Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows. Now, entrepreneurs aren’t letting fears of a recession stop them. In July 2023 alone, more than 469,000 people applied for employer identification numbers—the primary way the government measures small business applicants—marking a 0.5% increase from June.

Additionally, small businesses and startups continue to grow jobs, increasing overall employment despite high-profile layoffs at larger corporations. Nearly half of all workers have jobs at small firms, so continued entrepreneurship keeps the job market strong. What’s more, the pioneering spirit keeps overall economic productivity strong.

Business owners told the New York Times their experiences in the pandemic had “recession-proofed” their businesses. Now they know how to pivot and survive while financially strapped. But interest rates are up, and investors have pulled back, raising the stakes for new business owners.

Groundbreaking companies, like Uber and Airbnb, have emerged from past recessions. While consumers may be more hesitant, hiring is typically easier, and business costs are less expensive amid downturns. From offering new products to creating jobs to upholding economies, new businesses create ripples across their communities.

Read on to see which county in your state saw the most businesses set the groundwork to build their legacies. The data used on new business applications are tallied from applications for employer identification numbers from the Census Bureau. States and counties that allow business owners and operators to incorporate without residing locally may have inflated per capita numbers. Counties with fewer than 1,000 residents were excluded from the analysis.

 


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Alabama: Mobile County

– 2022 applications: 9,792 (23.8 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 8,782 (21.3 per 1,000 residents)

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Alaska: Skagway Municipality

– 2022 applications: 29 (26.8 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 10 (8.8 per 1,000 residents)

Sean Pavone // Shutterstock

Arizona: Maricopa County

– 2022 applications: 83,305 (18.3 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 83,458 (18.6 per 1,000 residents)

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Arkansas: Phillips County

– 2022 applications: 328 (21.4 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 347 (21.9 per 1,000 residents)

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California: Alpine County

– 2022 applications: 21 (17.6 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 23 (18.6 per 1,000 residents)

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Colorado: Pitkin County

– 2022 applications: 671 (39.8 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 727 (41.9 per 1,000 residents)

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Connecticut: Western Connecticut Planning Region

– 2022 applications: 11,118 (17.8 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: Not available: Prior to 2022, data were collected for Connecticut’s former counties rather than its new planning regions. (0.0 per 1,000 residents)

Nagel Photography // Shutterstock

Delaware: Kent County

– 2022 applications: 12,961 (69.3 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 11,552 (62.7 per 1,000 residents)

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Florida: Miami-Dade County

– 2022 applications: 127,895 (47.8 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 136,137 (51.0 per 1,000 residents)

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Georgia: Fulton County

– 2022 applications: 50,118 (46.6 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 60,986 (57.4 per 1,000 residents)

pikappa51 // Shutterstock

Hawaii: Maui County

– 2022 applications: 2,778 (16.9 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 2,935 (17.8 per 1,000 residents)

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Idaho: Teton County

– 2022 applications: 298 (23.8 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 308 (25.1 per 1,000 residents)

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Illinois: Cook County

– 2022 applications: 93,690 (18.3 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 118,523 (22.9 per 1,000 residents)

Sean Pavone // Shutterstock

Indiana: Marion County

– 2022 applications: 22,226 (22.9 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 25,352 (26.1 per 1,000 residents)

stivanderson // Shutterstock

Iowa: Jefferson County

– 2022 applications: 221 (14.1 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 225 (14.3 per 1,000 residents)

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Kansas: Lane County

– 2022 applications: 45 (28.9 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 22 (14.0 per 1,000 residents)

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Kentucky: Jefferson County

– 2022 applications: 12,082 (15.6 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 12,973 (16.7 per 1,000 residents)

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Louisiana: Orleans Parish

– 2022 applications: 9,408 (25.4 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 12,809 (34.0 per 1,000 residents)

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Maine: Cumberland County

– 2022 applications: 3,670 (11.9 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 3,803 (12.4 per 1,000 residents)

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Maryland: Garrett County

– 2022 applications: 748 (26.2 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 579 (20.1 per 1,000 residents)

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Massachusetts: Nantucket County

– 2022 applications: 433 (30.0 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 344 (23.7 per 1,000 residents)

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Michigan: Wayne County

– 2022 applications: 39,328 (22.4 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 47,565 (26.8 per 1,000 residents)

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Minnesota: Cook County

– 2022 applications: 94 (16.5 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 81 (14.4 per 1,000 residents)

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Mississippi: Coahoma County

– 2022 applications: 774 (38.3 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 754 (36.4 per 1,000 residents)

Sean Pavone // Shutterstock

Missouri: St. Louis city

– 2022 applications: 6,422 (22.4 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 7,803 (26.6 per 1,000 residents)

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Montana: Flathead County

– 2022 applications: 4,219 (37.7 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 3,521 (32.4 per 1,000 residents)

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Nebraska: Boyd County

– 2022 applications: 33 (19.0 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 18 (10.1 per 1,000 residents)

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Nevada: Clark County

– 2022 applications: 49,369 (21.3 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 55,475 (24.2 per 1,000 residents)

Wangkun Jia // Shutterstock

New Hampshire: Rockingham County

– 2022 applications: 3,582 (11.2 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 3,559 (11.2 per 1,000 residents)

Mihai_Andritoiu // Shutterstock

New Jersey: Essex County

– 2022 applications: 18,114 (21.3 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 21,329 (25.0 per 1,000 residents)

Jimack // Shutterstock

New Mexico: Santa Fe County

– 2022 applications: 4,338 (27.9 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 3,683 (23.7 per 1,000 residents)

pisaphotography // Shutterstock

New York: New York County

– 2022 applications: 50,149 (31.4 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 53,217 (33.7 per 1,000 residents)

digidreamgrafix // Shutterstock

North Carolina: Mecklenburg County

– 2022 applications: 29,600 (25.8 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 34,052 (30.2 per 1,000 residents)

Traveller70 // Shutterstock

North Dakota: Dunn County

– 2022 applications: 88 (21.9 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 62 (15.4 per 1,000 residents)

Sean Pavone // Shutterstock

Ohio: Franklin County

– 2022 applications: 24,370 (18.4 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 26,733 (20.3 per 1,000 residents)

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Oklahoma: Oklahoma County

– 2022 applications: 14,955 (18.6 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 16,158 (20.2 per 1,000 residents)

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Oregon: Hood River County

– 2022 applications: 409 (17.0 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 352 (14.6 per 1,000 residents)

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Pennsylvania: Philadelphia County

– 2022 applications: 29,166 (18.6 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 42,298 (26.6 per 1,000 residents)

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Rhode Island: Providence County

– 2022 applications: 7,055 (10.7 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 7,450 (11.3 per 1,000 residents)

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South Carolina: Charleston County

– 2022 applications: 10,138 (24.2 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 10,561 (25.5 per 1,000 residents)

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South Dakota: Haakon County

– 2022 applications: 37 (20.3 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 19 (10.4 per 1,000 residents)

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Tennessee: Davidson County

– 2022 applications: 15,302 (21.6 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 15,871 (22.6 per 1,000 residents)

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Texas: Glasscock County

– 2022 applications: 30 (25.8 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 13 (11.4 per 1,000 residents)

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Utah: Summit County

– 2022 applications: 1,291 (30.0 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 1,457 (33.8 per 1,000 residents)

Joseph Sohm // Shutterstock

Vermont: Lamoille County

– 2022 applications: 374 (14.3 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 322 (12.3 per 1,000 residents)

OJUP // Shutterstock

Virginia: Petersburg city

– 2022 applications: 797 (23.9 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 1,017 (30.5 per 1,000 residents)

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Washington: San Juan County

– 2022 applications: 273 (14.6 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 356 (19.1 per 1,000 residents)

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West Virginia: Jefferson County

– 2022 applications: 646 (11.0 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 569 (9.7 per 1,000 residents)

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Wisconsin: Milwaukee County

– 2022 applications: 18,019 (19.6 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 19,542 (21.1 per 1,000 residents)

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Wyoming: Sheridan County

– 2022 applications: 22,389 (697.6 per 1,000 residents)
– 2021 applications: 17,043 (538.2 per 1,000 residents)

Data reporting by Paxtyn Merten. Story editing by Jeff Inglis. Copy editing by Paris Close.

This story originally appeared on PlanBuildr and was produced and
distributed in partnership with Stacker Studio.

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