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Asian markets track post-Fed surge on Wall St, but caution urged

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New York indexes were sent soaring in response to Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell comments that traders hoped signalled an end to major rate hikes
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Asian markets rose Thursday following a surge on Wall Street fuelled by hopes that the Federal Reserve could slow its pace of inflation-fighting interest rate hikes.

The dollar also struggled to bounce back from a sell-off — sitting at a three-week low against the yen — that came in response to comments by bank chief Jerome Powell suggesting its next super-sized increase could be its last.

However, analysts cautioned that the initial joy, which sent New York’s three main indexes soaring, could be short-lived as the global economy continued to face several headwinds and inflation would not likely come down quickly.

As expected, the Fed lifted borrowing costs 75 basis points to a range of 2.25-2.5 percent, close to the neutral level it considers neither stimulating nor slowing economic growth.

Forecasts have rates going as high as 3.8 percent in 2023 as the bank tries to control runaway inflation.

There is a growing concern that the sharp rise in rates is bearing down on the world’s top economy and could send it into recession.

But in his post-meeting comments, Powell said he did not consider that was the case, because “there are too many areas of the economy that are performing too well”. He did, however, note growth was slowing.

He added that officials would not give any guidance on their next move, instead taking each decision on a meeting-to-meeting basis. 

And while he said another “unusually large increase could be appropriate” in September, markets took heart from the suggestion that the bank was ready to take its foot off the gas towards the end of the year.

On Wall Street, the Dow and S&P rallied and the Nasdaq soared more than four percent — its best one-day rise since late 2020 — as tech firms caught a wave of optimism. The sector is more susceptible to higher rates.

And Asia followed suit, though with more muted gains.

Hong Kong was up after bouncing from initial losses as the city’s de facto central bank followed the Fed in lifting rates owing to its currency peg.

Shanghai, Tokyo, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei, Manila, Jakarta and Wellington were also well in the green.

The prospect of a slower pace of rate hikes weighed on the dollar against most other currencies, and on Thursday hit its lowest level against the yen since July 6.

However, there was a warning that the positive mood likely will not last.

“This market move is the victory of hope over experience,” Jeffrey Rosenberg, at BlackRock Inc, told Bloomberg Television. “I’d be a little bit cautious here.”

And Citigroup’s Andrew Hollenhorst and Veronica Clark added that traders appeared to be misjudging Powell’s remarks.

“We read Chair Powell’s press conference as more hawkish than the market’s interpretation,” they said, adding that inflation readings excluding food and energy will “push the Fed to hike more aggressively than they or markets anticipate”.

All eyes are now on the release of second-quarter growth data later Thursday. After a 1.6 percent contraction in the previous three months, another negative reading would put the economy into a technical recession.

An expected phone call between Joe Biden and China’s Xi Jinping will also be high on the agenda for investors as the world’s superpowers try to navigate a period of rising tensions. Anything on US tariffs and Taiwan will be among the main areas of focus.

– Key figures at around 0230 GMT –

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.3 percent at 27,804.21 (break)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.4 percent at 20,75001

Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.7 percent at 3,299.89

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0198 from $1.0201 late Wednesday

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2157 from $1.2151 

Euro/pound: DOWN at 83.39 pence from 83.85 pence

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 135.52 yen from 136.51 yen

West Texas Intermediate: UP 1.6 percent at $98.80 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: UP 1.2 percent at $108.00 per barrel

New York – Dow: UP 1.4 percent at 32,197.59 (close)

London – FTSE 100: UP 0.6 percent at 7,348.23 (close) 

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Sony trims annual profit forecast after Bungie purchase

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Sony Group now predicts net profit for 2022-23 will total 800 billion yen
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Sony trimmed its annual net profit forecast on Friday, partly due to acquisition expenses including the purchase of US game studio Bungie, creator of hits like “Halo” and “Destiny”.

The PlayStation maker announced in February it would buy Bungie for $3.6 billion, weeks after rival Microsoft unveiled a landmark pact to acquire “Call of Duty” maker Activision Blizzard.

Microsoft says its massive merger, valued at around $69 billion, will make it the third-largest gaming company by revenue, behind Tencent and Sony — marking a major shift in the booming gaming world.

Sony Group now predicts net profit for 2022-23 will total 800 billion yen ($6 billion), down from the 830 billion yen previously forecast.

It said the expected increase in acquisition expenses was “mainly due to the acquisition of Bungie, Inc. being completed earlier than the assumed timing”.

Lower sales of games by non-house developers will likely dent its overall sales figures this financial year, it said, but this would be “partially offset” by a weaker yen.

Exchange rates also boosted the conglomerate’s movie segment, chief financial officer Hiroki Totoki told reporters.

Customer traffic at US theatres has returned to pre-pandemic levels in some weeks, and Sony Pictures is hoping to score another box-office win after the runaway success of “Spider-Man: No Way Home”.

“We have high hopes for ‘Bullet Train’ featuring Brad Pitt,” Totoki said.

The movie division expects higher sales for anime streaming, “including the impact of the acquisition of Crunchyroll”, the world’s largest online library of Japanese animation.

– PlayStation 5 sales steady –

In the April to June quarter, the Japanese conglomerate posted a three percent year-on-year rise in net profit to 218 billion yen, with sales up around two percent to 2.3 trillion yen.

Sony has faced challenges rolling out its PlayStation 5 console, which remains difficult to get hold of more than 18 months since its launch in November 2020, in part due to pandemic supply chain disruption and the global chip shortage.

Sony sold 11.5 million PS5s last year, and in May Totoki said the firm was adapting to try and weather ongoing supply chain issues, including Covid-19 lockdowns in China. 

For the PS5, “the problem is more about supply than demand. The company is also facing problems transporting its products,” Hideki Yasuda, senior analyst at Toyo Securities, told AFP before the earnings release.

Meanwhile “the yen has turned lower in this quarter. This should be positive for the company,” he said, adding that a US economic slowdown could open up shipping spots, even though it poses risks overall for businesses like Sony.

In the first quarter of this financial year, Sony sold 2.4 million PS5 units, similar to the same period last year when it sold 2.3 million.

Sony also said last month it is launching a new brand that will offer PC gaming gear.

The gaming peripherals market of items used by players was valued at $3.88 billion globally in 2019 according to Grand View Research.

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Asian markets rise as US data boosts hopes of slower Fed hikes

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The prospect of a slower pace of Fed rate hikes has weighed on the dollar, which has fallen below 135 yen for the first time since the start of July, having hit a 24-year peak near 140 yen two weeks ago
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Asian stocks rose Friday after data showing another contraction in the US economy boosted hopes that the Federal Reserve will slow its pace of interest rate hikes.

After an extended period of pessimism on trading floors fuelled by soaring inflation and the central bank’s monetary tightening campaign, investors are beginning to speculate that the market may have reached its nadir.

The world’s top economy shrank 0.9 percent in April-June following a 1.6 percent retreat in the first quarter as it was buffeted by the four-decade spike in inflation and rising borrowing costs.

But the reading was taken as a sign of good news, as it could give the Fed room to take its foot off the pedal, with Treasury yields — considered a barometer of future interest rates — easing.

Officials are expected to continue lifting rates, but analysts estimate they will announce a 50-basis-point rise in September, compared with 75 at the past two meetings.

And analysts said the quick, sharp pace of increases would allow the bank to begin cutting sooner in 2023 while others said any recession would likely only be shallow and short.

The news saw all three main indexes on Wall Street rally more than one percent, with tech firms — which are susceptible to higher rates — leading the way.

The gains extended a rally Wednesday that came after Fed chief Jerome Powell hinted that the bank could start to take it easier in its tightening.

Most of Asia followed suit, with Tokyo, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei, Jakarta and Wellington all up. However, Hong Kong dropped and Shanghai struggled.

The prospect of US rates not rising as fast as previously expected hit the dollar, which has soared in recent months against most other currencies. 

The greenback dropped below 135 yen Thursday for the first time since July 6, having hit a 24-year high of 139.39 yen just two weeks ago.

A second successive contraction is widely considered a technical recession, though it is not officially considered so in the United States until identified as such by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

But while debate rages over that issue, the general consensus is that the economy is struggling.

“The more important point is that the economy has quickly lost steam in the face of four-decade high inflation, rapidly rising borrowing costs, and a general tightening in financial conditions,” Sal Guatieri, of BMO Capital Markets, wrote.

The retreat in the US economy comes as China also struggles, hit by painful Covid-induced lockdowns in major cities including Shanghai and Beijing that hammered all sectors and supply chains.

On Thursday, the country’s leadership offered a dour assessment of the world’s number two economy but offered no plans to stimulate growth, leaving traders disappointed.

– Key figures at around 0230 GMT –

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.5 percent at 27,944.55 (break)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.4 percent at 20,343.08

Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.4 percent at 3,269.18

Dollar/yen: UP at 134.36 yen from 134.25 yen Thursday

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0193 from $1.0197 

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2167 from $1.2177 

Euro/pound: UP at 83.77 pence from 83.70 pence

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.8 percent at $97.16 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: UP 0.3 percent at $107.50 per barrel

New York – Dow: UP 1.0 percent at 32,529.63 (close)

London – FTSE 100: FLAT at 7,345.25 (close) 

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Amazon tops expectations as quarterly sales climb

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Amazon announces expectation-beating results
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E-commerce colossus Amazon on Thursday reported that its sales in the recently ended quarter grew more than expected despite inflation and other economic turmoil.

Amazon sales topped $121 billion in the quarter, but the company logged a loss of $2 billion dollars as it continued to work to rein in costs — but its shares still jumped 10 percent in after-hours trading.

A crowded period of earnings from the world’s biggest tech firms has mostly disappointed, but investors have seemed relieved the news was not worse.

Recession fears, a strong dollar, shrinking advertising budgets and inflation — tech companies’ pandemic-era booms have now tipped into a downturn.

Microsoft and Facebook-owner Meta both cited the harm to their business from a strong dollar, with the social media giant pointing to the greenback’s role in the firm’s first year-on-year revenue decline since going public in 2012.

In addition to the generally bumpy economic times, firms such as Netflix and Meta are fighting fierce competition from rivals — and both reported losing some ground.

Meta lost about two million monthly users between quarters, and Netflix shed nearly a million paying customers, which was less than expected.

Yet Netflix stock is up about a percent in the past five days, with investors potentially hopeful after the firm projected a coming rebound in subscribers.

Markets seemed similarly assuaged despite Google parent Alphabet missing on revenue and profit.

The Silicon Valley giant’s bad news was not unexpected, as the flow of online ad dollars that fuels the company’s fortunes has slowed as inflation, war and other troubles vex the overall economy.

“Still, with its tremendous market share in search advertising, Google is relatively well positioned to weather the rough waters that lie ahead,” said analyst Evelyn Mitchell.

As advertisers have tightened their belts, and Apple’s privacy changes have bitten into firms’ sales of costly but highly targeted ads, the damage was uneven.

Meta’s income has taken a beating, and with a share price that has lost about half its value since February, it’s clear that investors are still wary about the company’s future.

Analysts noted Meta’s reported 14 percent drop in average price per ad was a steep change coming on top of the first quarter, when ad prices dipped 8 percent.

“The good news, if we can call it that, is that its competitors in digital advertising are also experiencing a slowdown,” said analyst Debra Aho Williamson.

Snapchat’s parent firm, for example, reported that its loss in the recently ended quarter nearly tripled to $422 million despite revenue increasing 13 percent under conditions “more challenging” than expected.

“We are not satisfied with the results we are delivering, regardless of the current headwinds,” California-based Snap said in a letter to investors last week.

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