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Dark cloud over ChatGPT revolution: the cost

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Artificial intelligence tool ChatGPT was developed by OpenAI
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The explosion of generative AI has taken the world by storm, but one question all too rarely comes up: Who can afford it?

OpenAI bled around $540 million last year as it developed ChatGPT and says it needs $100 billion to meet its ambitions, according to industry media The Information. 

“We’re going to be the most capital-intensive startup in Silicon Valley history,” OpenAI’s founder Sam Altman told a panel recently.

And when Microsoft, which poured billions of dollars in investment into OpenAI, is asked about how much its AI adventure will cost, the company answers with assurances that it is keeping an eye on its bottom line.

Building something even near the scale of what OpenAI, Microsoft or Google have on offer would require an eye-watering investment on state-of-the-art chips and recruiting prize-winning researchers.

“People don’t realize that to do a significant amount of AI things like ChatGPT takes huge amounts of processing power. And training those models can cost tens of millions of dollars,” said Jack Gold, an independent analyst.

“How many companies can actually afford to go out and buy 10,000 Nvidia H100 systems that go for tens of thousands of dollars a piece?” asked Gold.

The answer is pretty much no one and in tech, if you can’t build the infrastructure, you rent it and that is what companies already do massively by outsourcing their computing needs to Microsoft, Google and Amazon’s AWS.

And with the advent of generative AI, this dependency on cloud computing and tech giants deepens, leaving the same players in the driver’s seat, experts warned.

– ‘Heavily underestimated’ –

The unpredictable costs of cloud computing, “is a heavily underestimated problem for many companies,” said Stefan Sigg, Chief Product Officer at Software AG, which develops software for businesses.

Sigg compares cloud costs to electricity bills and says companies that don’t know better are in for “a big surprise” if they let their engineers run up bills in the mad rush to build tech, including AI.

Microsoft’s signature cloud offer is Azure and some observers believe the giant’s all-in bet on AI is really about protecting Azure success and guaranteeing the cash cow’s future.

Azure has been the giant’s unsexy bread-winner for years, bringing in huge profits but without attracting the headlines of an iPhone or social media that go straight to the consumer.

For Microsoft, “the golden goose is monetizing cloud with Azure because we’re talking about what could be a $20, $30, $40 billion opportunity annually down the road if the AI bet is successful,” said Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities.

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella insists that generative AI is “moving fast in the right direction.” 

Deeply respected on Wall Street, Nadella will have a six- or nine-month grace period to show his bet is a winner, Ives predicted.

Microsoft acknowledges the risk, but insists that on AI, it must “lead this wave,” CFO Amy Hood told analysts this month.

“We will charge for those AI capabilities, and then ultimately, we’ll deliver operating profit,” she said.

– ‘Squashed out’ –

Piling up profit at the company founded by Bill Gates can only mean passing on the cost of AI to customers. 

From Main Street to Fortune 500, the dependency on the AI-amped will be an expensive one and companies and investors are drumming up alternatives to at least reduce the bill.

“AI training, GPT training will become a very important cloud service going forward,” said Spectro Cloud CEO Tenry Fu.

His company, like many others in the sector, helps companies optimize cloud technology to reduce expenses.

“But after training, a company will be able to get their model back for real AI application” and the dependence on the cloud giants will hopefully be reduced, he added.

Regulators are hoping that they can keep up, and not leave the giants in charge, imposing their terms on smaller companies.

“Law enforcers (must) ensure that… opportunities and openings for competition… are not getting squashed out by the incumbents,” FTC chairwoman Lina Khan told CNBC.

But it might be too late, at least when it comes to which companies have the means to provide the groundwork of generative AI.

“It is absolutely true that the number of companies that can train the true frontier models is going to be small just because of the resources required,” OpenAI’s Altman told a US Senate panel on Tuesday.

“And so I think there needs to be incredible scrutiny on us and our competitors,” he added.

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US Congress to take on TikTok ban bill — again

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TikTok est depuis plusieurs mois dans le collimateur des autorités américaines, de nombreux responsables estimant que la plateforme de vidéos courtes et divertissantes permet à Pékin d'espionner et de manipuler ses 170 millions d'utilisateurs aux Etats-Unis
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The US House of Representatives will again vote Saturday on a bill that would force TikTok to divest from Chinese parent company ByteDance or face a nationwide ban.

The measure has been written into a massive $61 billion aid bill for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, which could ease its passage in both chambers of the US Congress.

Under the bill, ByteDance would have to sell the app within a few months or be excluded from Apple and Google’s app stores in the United States.

It would also give the US president the authority to designate other applications as a threat to national security if they are controlled by a country deemed hostile.

TikTok slammed the bill, saying it would hurt the US economy and undermine free speech. 

“It is unfortunate that the House of Representatives is using the cover of important foreign and humanitarian assistance to once again jam through a ban bill,” a company spokesman said.

He added a ban would “trample the free speech rights of 170 million Americans, devastate 7 million businesses, and shutter a platform that contributes $24 billion to the US economy annually.”

Western officials have voiced alarm over the popularity of TikTok with young people, alleging that it is subservient to Beijing and a conduit to spread propaganda, claims denied by the company and Beijing.

Joe Biden reiterated his concerns about TikTok during a phone call with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in early April.

The House of Representatives last month approved a similar bill cracking down on TikTok, but the measure got held up in the Senate.

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Taiwan chip giant TSMC’s profits surge on AI demand

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company -- whose clients include Apple and Nvidia -- controls more than half the world's output of silicon wafers
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Taiwanese semiconductor giant TSMC announced Thursday a nearly 9 percent increase in net profits in the first quarter of 2024, buoyed by global demand for its microchips used to power everything from mobile phones to AI technology.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company — whose clients include Apple and Nvidia — controls more than half the world’s output of silicon chips, which have been called the “lifeblood” of the modern world.

The company said Thursday its net profit increased 8.9 percent on-year in January-March to NT$225.4 billion ($6.97 billion) compared to NT$206.9 billion in the same period last year. 

First-quarter revenues also rose 13 percent year-on-year to $18.87 billion, it said.

CFO Wendell Huang also said during an earnings call Thursday that TSMC expects its second-quarter revenues to increase by 27.6 percent.

TSMC, which produces some of the most advanced microchips in the world, dominates the chip-making industry, as well as its customer US-based Nvidia. 

The bulk of its fabrication plants making its most high-tech products are based in Taiwan, a self-ruled island that is claimed by neighbouring China — which has in recent years ramped up political and military pressures on Taipei. 

With a supply chain so vulnerable to shocks, customers — as well as governments concerned about critical supplies — have called for the firm to move more chip production lines off the island, which is also prone to natural disasters like earthquakes. 

Earlier this month, a massive magnitude-7.4 quake hit Taiwan and “a certain number of wafers in process were impacted and had to be scrapped”, Huang said. 

“But we expect most of the lost production to be recovered in the second quarter and thus minimum impact to the second quarter revenue,” he said. 

– ‘Significant progress’ –

The firm had also earlier this month announced plans to build a third semiconductor factory in Arizona — adding to the two fabrication units already in progress there. 

The preliminary agreement with the US Commerce Department — tied to a major investment law called the Chips and Science Act — would see TSMC receiving up to $6.6 billion in direct funding from the US government. 

That would raise its total investment in the United States to $65 billion.

“In Arizona, we have received the strong commitment and support from our US customers and plan to build three fabs… We have made significant progress in our first fab, which has already entered engineering wafer production in April,” said CC Wei, the company’s CEO.

“We are well on track for volume production in first half of 2025.”

He added that the second fab in Arizona has been upgraded “to utilise 2-nanometre technologies to support the strong AI-related demand in addition to the previously announced 3-nanometre” chips. 

TSMC’s projects in Arizona have faced some obstacles in the past year, which the company had attributed to a lack of human resources, as making microchips requires a highly specialised skillset. 

But if successful, the TSMC fabs in Arizona would be the “first time” that super-advanced chips will be made on American soil, said US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo earlier this month. 

The company had also in February launched a new $8.6 billion plant in the southern Japanese island of Kyushu — a coup for Japan as it vies with the United States and Europe to woo semiconductor firms with huge subsidies.

It is also planning another facility in Kumamoto for more advanced chips.

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Meta shouldn’t force users to pay for data protection: EU watchdog

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Meta in November launched a 'pay or consent' system -- a model that has faced several challenges
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Facebook owner Meta and other online platforms must not force users to pay for the right to data protection enshrined in EU law when offering ad-free subscriptions, the European data regulator said Wednesday. 

“Online platforms should give users a real choice when employing ‘consent or pay’ models,” the European Data Protection Board (EDPB) chair Anu Talus said in a statement. 

“The models we have today usually require individuals to either give away all their data or to pay,” she said. “As a result, most users consent to the processing in order to use a service, and they do not understand the full implications of their choices.”

Meta in November launched a “pay or consent” system allowing users to withhold use of their data for ad targeting in exchange for a monthly fee — a model that has faced several challenges from privacy and consumer advocates.

Meta has long profited from selling user data to advertisers but this business model has led to multiple battles with EU regulators over data privacy.

The latest announcement came after the data protection authorities of The Netherlands, Norway and the German state of Hamburg went to the EDPB for an opinion regarding the pay-or-consent model used by Meta.

The Silicon Valley company allows users of Instagram and Facebook in Europe to pay between 10 and 13 euros (around $11 and $14) a month to opt out of data sharing.

Meta pointed to an EU court ruling last year that it said opened the way for subscriptions as a “legally valid” option. “Today’s EDPB opinion does not alter that judgment and subscription for no ads complies with EU laws,” a Meta spokesperson said.

Meta is waiting for a decision on its model by the data privacy regulator in Ireland where the company is headquartered.

– ‘Binary choice’ –

All digital platforms must comply with the European Union’s mammoth general data protection regulation (GDPR), which has been at the root of EU court cases against Meta.

The EDPB in its opinion argued that Meta’s model was at odds with the GDPR’s requirement that consent for data use must be freely given.

“In most cases, it will not be possible for large online platforms to comply with the requirements for valid consent if they confront users only with a binary choice between consenting to processing of personal data for behavioural advertising purposes and paying a fee,” the opinion read.

The EDPB also warned the type of subscription service put forward by Meta “should not be the default way forward” for platforms.

It suggested that platforms should consider an alternative that would give users the right to reject being tracked for advertising purposes without the need to pay.

Privacy defenders welcomed the opinion.

“Overall, Meta is out of options in the EU. It must now give users a genuine yes/no option for personalised advertising,” said prominent online privacy activist Max Schrems.

“We know that ‘Pay or Okay’ shifts consent rates from about three percent to more than 99 percent — so it is as far from ‘freely given’ consent as North Korea is from a democracy,” said Schrems.

Tech lobby group CCIA however warned the EDPB risked “opening a Pandora’s Box”.

“Forcing businesses to offer services at a loss is unprecedented and sends the wrong signals,” said CCIA Europe’s senior policy manager, Claudia Canelles Quaroni.

“All companies should be able to offer paid-for versions of their services.”

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