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Climate change by numbers

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This is expected to be the hottest year on record, as planet-heating emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise
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As countries try to hammer out a response to climate change at the COP28 talks in Dubai, here are some key figures about how fossil fuels have warmed our world.

– Heat records tumbling –

The decade up to 2020 was easily the hottest on record, with an average global temperature 1.1 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial era (1850-1900), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in a new report on Tuesday.

The heat melted glaciers and ice sheets at record levels while the seas rose by an average rate of 4.5 millimetres a year, the report said.

The WMO warned last week that 2023 is set to be the hottest year ever recorded, overtaking 2016 and 2020.

This year has been about 1.4C hotter than pre-industrial levels according to data up to the end of October, the UN agency added.

That is worryingly close to the 1.5C threshold for warming under the 2015 Paris agreement — however that limit is measured over decades.

Under the current emissions-cutting plans, Earth is on track for disastrous heating of between 2.5C and 2.9C by 2100, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) said last month.

Scientists say data from tree rings and the like suggests the temperatures seen this year could be the warmest in more than 100,000 years.

– How did we get here? –

Emissions of planet-heating carbon dioxide rose by 1.1% last year, climate scientists involved in the Global Carbon Project said Tuesday.

CO2 from burning fossil fuels contributes to around two thirds of all greenhouse gas emissions, according to the UNEP’s Emissions Gap report.

The United States and China together accounted for 41 percent of greenhouse gas emissions in 2021, it said.

Looking back, the US was responsible for 19 percent of global warming between 1850 to 2021 — despite having just four percent of the global population — followed by 12 percent for China and 10 percent for the EU.

China is expected to increase CO2 emissions by four percent this year, according to the Global Carbon Project.

India’s emissions surging by eight percent means it has now overtaken the EU as the third-biggest fossil fuel polluter, it added.

While 775 million people still lack electricity, the richest 10 percent worldwide emit up to 45 percent of all greenhouse gases consumed by households, according to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

– More cuts needed –

When the Paris deal was sealed in 2015, greenhouse gas emissions were projected to rise 16 percent by 2030.

Partly thanks to emissions-cutting efforts, they are now projected to increase by three percent, UNEP said.

However that is nowhere near what is needed, with the IPCC warning that they must be cut by 43 percent by 2030.

Unless more is done, the Global Carbon Project said it is a coin-flip over whether the world will pass the 1.5C limit multiple times by the end of this decade.

– Methane –

Methane is the second largest contributor to global warming after CO2, and is responsible for around 30 percent of the rise in global temperatures since the industrial revolution, according to UNEP.

Around 40 percent of human-driven methane emissions are from agriculture — which includes gas burped out by livestock such as cows — while 35 percent are from fossil fuels and 20 percent from solid waste and wastewater.

The UNEP has warned that methane emissions could rise 13 percent over the decade to 2030. However to reach the 1.5 Paris target, they need to fall by up to 60 percent.

– Renewable energy –

Solar, wind and other renewable energies are seen as crucial to achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

The International Energy Agency said in September that growth in solar power and electric car sales were in line with a “pathway” needed to reach that goal.

That would require global renewable energy capacity to triple by the end of the decade — a goal more than 110 nations agreed to at the COP28 talks.

This non-binding commitment could end up in the final negotiated text agreed at the end of the two-week talks.

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EU says Apple iPad operating system to face stricter rules

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Apple has six months to prepare to comply with the EU's Digital Markets Act
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The EU on Monday said Apple’s operating system for iPads must comply with tougher new rules that Brussels is imposing to rein in the world’s biggest digital companies.

The European Commission designated Apple’s iPadOS system as a “core” service under the landmark Digital Markets Act (DMA), which forces companies to modify their business ways to encourage competition between online platforms.

It joins other Apple products that were already in the DMA net since September: iOS for iPhones, the App Store, and the Safari browser.

Under the DMA, digital firms designated as “gatekeepers” have to abide by a list of rules including allowing interoperability with rivals’ communication services and limiting how data is shared between products put out by the same parent company.

Apple is on the gatekeepers list, alongside the likes of Google parent Alphabet, Amazon, TikTok owner ByteDance, Meta and Microsoft. 

– EU-Apple tussle –

The inclusion of iPadOS as a core service adds to a long tussle between the European Union and Apple over the bloc’s new digital laws.

Apple has been one of the DMA’s most vocal public critics. It claims the law ushers in privacy and security threats for users.

The commission, the EU’s powerful competition regulator, said it named the iPadOS system because it locked users into the iPad operating system.

“Apple leverages its large ecosystem to disincentivise end users from switching to other operating systems for tablets,” it said.

The operating system also “locked-in” Apple’s business users, it said, “because of its large and commercially attractive user base, and its importance for certain use cases, such as gaming apps”.

Apple has six months to comply with the DMA gatekeeper rules, the commission said in a statement.

“Today’s decision will ensure that fairness and contestability are preserved also on this platform, in addition to the 22 other services we designated last September,” the EU’s competition commissioner, Margrethe Vestager, said.

Apple said in a statement after the announcement that it would “continue to constructively engage with the European Commission to comply with the DMA, across all designated services”.

It added: “Our focus will remain on delivering the very best products and services to our European customers, while mitigating the new privacy and data security risks the DMA poses for our users.”

Apple already faces a commission investigation under the DMA.

In March, Brussels said it would probe whether Apple’s App Store allows developers to present users with offers outside of its app marketplace, free of charge.

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TikTok creators fear economic blow of US ban

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The appetite for short-form video online is expected to remain strong even if TikTok is banned in the United States, boding well for rival platforms
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Ayman Chaudhary turned her love for reading into a living on TikTok, posting video snippets about books like those banned in schools in ultra-conservative parts of the United States.

Now the online platform she relies on to support her family is poised to be banned in what entrepreneurs using TikTok condemn as an attack on their livelihoods.

“It’s so essential to small businesses and creators; it’s my full-time job,” the 23-year-old Chicago resident told AFP.

“It makes me really worried that I live in a country that would pass bans like these instead of focusing on what’s actually important, like gun control and healthcare and education.”

A new US law put TikTok’s parent, Chinese tech giant ByteDance, on a nine-month deadline to divest the hugely popular video platform or have it banned in the United States.

US lawmakers argued that TikTok can be used by the Chinese government for espionage and propaganda as long as it is owned by ByteDance.

“Everybody who’s involved in deciding whether or not this platform is going to get banned is turning a blind eye to how it’s going to affect all of the small businesses,” said Bilal Rehman of Texas. 

His @bilalrehmanstudio TikTok account, which playfully promotes his company’s interior design projects, has some 500,000 followers.

“They don’t really understand social media and how it works,” the 24-year-old added.

TikTok has gone from a novelty to a necessity for many US small businesses, according to an Oxford Economics study backed by the platform.

TikTok fuels growth for more than seven million businesses in the United States, helping generate billions of dollars and supporting more than 224,000 jobs, the study determined.

“It’s become such a huge part of our economy that taking that away is going to be devastating to millions of people,” Rehman said of TikTok.

Chaudhary took to TikTok to share her passion for reading in early 2020 while enduring Covid-19 lockdowns.

“I made a handful of videos and, long story short, one went viral,” Chaudhary said.

Opportunities to make money from sponsors or advertising came as her audience grew, and posting on her @aymansbooks TikTok account became a job.

She saw books she extolled snapped up by readers, as she shined attention on titles banned from schools or libraries in parts of the country.

– Unique vibe –

A TikTok ban would be a particularly hard blow to businesses just starting out, according to eMarketer analyst Jasmine Enberg.

“Social media has democratized the commerce landscape, and TikTok really supercharged that,” Enberg told AFP.

“It’s become a crucial platform for many small businesses, especially those that are in niche industries or sell quirky products.”

One factor setting TikTok apart from rival platforms is the potential for videos to be spread quickly by a highly engaged audience, according to Enberg.

“The potential to be discovered on TikTok is really unparalleled, and that’s largely thanks to its algorithm as well as the entertaining kind of content that it hosts,” she said.

A young generation is using TikTok as a search engine of sorts, making queries as they might on Google and seeing what the algorithm serves up, said SOCi director of market insights Damian Rollison.

“It feels like it has been created by your peers, so they’re telling you the real deal about whatever the topic might be,” Rollison said of the trend.

TikTok lovers say it has a unique style that will be missed in the case of a ban.

“There is definitely a different vibe on TikTok versus YouTube or Instagram,” said Chaudhary.

“TikTok has a lot more humor in it and a lot more creativity than I see happening on Instagram.”

“My favorite part about TikTok is, it feels almost like you’re on a FaceTime call with your friend,” Rehman said.

“It feels really raw and authentic.”

Rollison advised businesses relying on TikTok to make contingency plans in event of a ban, sticking with short-form video, given the appetite for such content.

“The demand signals are so powerful amongst younger users that I believe the usage patterns are going to survive any of the outcomes,” Rollison said.

“Learning that ecosystem is not only a useful but even critical strategy.”

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Cybersecurity firm Darktrace accepts $5 bn takeover

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Darktrace chief executive Poppy Gustafsson (L) said the group's 'technology has never been more relevant in a world increasingly threatened by AI-powered cyberattacks'
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Cybersecurity firm Darktrace said Friday it had accepted a $5.3-billion takeover bid from US private equity firm Thoma Bravo, which highlighted the British group’s “capability in artificial intelligence”.

The cash bid comes after Thoma Bravo expressed takeover interest two years ago.

“Darktrace is at the very cutting edge of cybersecurity technology, and we have long been admirers of its platform and capability in artificial intelligence,” Thoma Bravo partner Andrew Almeida said in a statement.

“The pace of innovation in cybersecurity is accelerating in response to cyber threats that are simultaneously complex, global and sophisticated.”

Darktrace chief executive Poppy Gustafsson said the group’s “technology has never been more relevant in a world increasingly threatened by AI-powered cyberattacks”.

Darktrace, headquartered in the university city of Cambridge close to London, floated on the London stock market in 2021.

The cash deal announced Friday is worth $7.75 dollars per Darktrace share — a 44 percent premium on the group’s average share price in the last three months, according to Thoma Bravo.

Following the announcement, the share price surged 18 percent to 612 pence ($7.7).

Created in 2013, Darktrace employs more than 2,300 people around the world.

“The proposed acquisition will provide Darktrace access to a strong financial partner in Thoma Bravo, with deep software sector expertise, who can enhance the company’s position as a best-in-class cyber AI business headquartered in the UK,” Darktrace chair Gordon Hurst said in the statement.

The pair hope to complete the deal in the second half of the year thanks to shareholder and regulatory approval.

Almeida noted that Thoma Bravo has invested “exclusively in software for over twenty years” which would allow it to bring “operational expertise and deep experience of cybersecurity in supporting Darktrace’s growth”.

Prior to Friday’s announcement, shares in Darktrace has bounced back strongly after the company was cleared by independent auditors EY of having irregularities in its accounts.

Explaining its decision to go private, Darktrace said its “operating and financial achievements have not been reflected commensurately in its valuation with shares trading at a significant discount to its global peer group”.

– Takeover boom – 

The bid comes at the end of a week in which the London stock market has been gripped by takeover activity, helping the top-tier FTSE 100 index to record highs.

British mining giant Anglo American on Friday rejected a blockbuster $38.8-billion takeover bid from Australian rival BHP, slamming it as “highly unattractive” and “opportunistic”.

A battle to buy UK music rights owner Hipgnosis Songs Fund meanwhile took a fresh twist after US rival Concord increased its takeover offer, slightly beating a bid by Blackstone. 

Concord on Wednesday offered $1.5 billion for Hipgnosis, whose catalogue includes Justin Bieber, Shakira and Neil Young.

This is more than its original $1.4 billion offer that preceded a higher bid from US asset manager Blackstone.

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