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Between new rivals and a distracted boss, Tesla suffers on Wall Street

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Tesla lost a staggering two-thirds of its market value in 2022
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Tesla lost a staggering two-thirds of its market value in 2022, a victim of fears about demand for electric vehicles, dismay at Elon Musk’s tribulations as head of Twitter and the end of easy money on Wall Street.

On paper, everything was going well for the iconic electric vehicle maker that overcame supply problems and made nearly $9 billion in profit in the first three quarters of the year despite soaring costs.

But this is slower than the furious pace of growth that CEO Musk demands of his company with his stated ambition that Tesla unseat Apple as the world’s most valued company.

Even if the share price is subject “to a lot of emotional elements… Tesla will be by my best guess the most valuable company in the world in less than five years,” a defiant Musk told a forum on Twitter this month.

Blaming problems on “macroeconomic conditions” and high interest rates, Musk said he “can’t say enough good things” about Tesla, asking his listeners to ignore his misadventures at Twitter where the mercurial CEO has captured headlines since taking over in October.

But to some analysts, the problems at Tesla are more serious and unrelated to Twitter — mainly because the days where it was the sole player on the electric vehicle market are over.

The new year “is shaping up to be a ‘reset’ year for the EV market” with supply flooding the market, analyst Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley said in a note.

“There are hurdles to overcome,” added Jonas — citing increasing competition and a worsening economy, with living costs sent soaring by inflation.

– Rare discounts –

In 2023, the quiet hum of EV motors will be coming from vehicles other than Teslas as traditional automakers roll out models at an unprecedented pace. 

In Tesla’s luxury car category, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, Polestar and Rivian have entered the fray and the change is coming fast for Tesla.

While Musk’s Texas-based company still captured 65 percent of market share in the first nine months of the year, S&P Global analysts predicted Tesla’s market share will shrink to just 20 percent by 2025.

The situation in China is also not helping matters: according to press reports, production is currently suspended in Tesla’s Shanghai factory due to Covid-related issues.

To ramp up sales, Tesla has offered a rare $7,500 discount to US customers on the new Model 3 or Model Y, along with 10,000 miles of free fast charging.

– Twitter ‘storm’ –

Tesla, partly due to its superstar CEO, still has its diehard fans and Tesla is still seen as undisputed in terms of technology, cost management and scale in the fast-growing market.

The investment firm Robert W. Baird believes that the group is the “best positioned in the automotive market” and still recommends buying Tesla stock despite the crash.

Looming over everything is the shadow of Twitter, the influential social network bought in October by Musk — who fired more than half its staff, inviting controversy.

Tesla needs “a CEO to navigate this Category 5 storm” and not a boss “focused on Twitter,” said Wedbush’s Dan Ives in a note published Tuesday.

The multi-billionaire sold several billion dollars of Tesla shares to finance his new venture, and has offloaded billions more since the $44-billion buyout — in breach of pledges to stop selling the stock.

He also provoked critics by inviting Donald Trump and hundreds of other banned users back to Twitter and suspended certain journalists in an apparent fit of pique.

It has become “untenable” to separate the future of Tesla from Musk’s erratic management of Twitter, said Colin Rusch, of Oppenheimer.

The events at Twitter are “too much for a majority of consumers to continue supporting Musk and Tesla,” said Rusch, predicting the billionaire’s antics would drive at least some buyers towards other EV options — untainted by controversy.

The stock debacle comes after Tesla shares jumped by more than 700 percent in 2020 and 50 percent in 2021.

They have recovered nearly 12 percent in the last two days, but were still down 65 percent on Thursday evening compared to the beginning of the year.

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ByteDance says ‘no plans’ to sell TikTok after US ban law

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A new US law requires TikTok to sever all ties with its Chinese parent ByteDance or face a ban in the United States
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Chinese tech giant ByteDance has said it has no plans to sell TikTok after a new US law put it on a deadline to divest from the hugely popular video platform or have it banned in the United States.

US lawmakers set the nine-month deadline on national security grounds, alleging that TikTok can be used by the Chinese government for espionage and propaganda as long as it is owned by ByteDance.

The Information, a tech-focused US news site, reported that ByteDance was looking at scenarios for selling TikTok without the powerful secret algorithm that recommends videos to its more than one billion users around the world.

ByteDance denied it was considering a sale.

“Foreign media reports about ByteDance exploring the sale of TikTok are untrue,” the company posted Thursday on Toutiao, a Chinese-language platform it owns.

“ByteDance does not have any plans to sell TikTok.”

TikTok has been a political and diplomatic hot potato for years, first finding itself in the crosshairs of former president Donald Trump’s administration, which tried unsuccessfully to ban it.

It has forcefully denied any link to the Chinese government, and said it has not and will not share US user data with Beijing.

TikTok says it has also spent around $1.5 billion on “Project Texas”, under which US user data would be stored in the United States.

Its critics say the data is only part of the problem, and that the TikTok recommendation algorithm — the “secret sauce” for its success — must also be disconnected from ByteDance.

TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew has said the company will take the fight against the new law to the courts, but some experts believe that for the US Supreme Court, national security considerations could outweigh free speech protection.

– Bullish investors –

The estimated valuations of TikTok are in the tens of billions of dollars, and any forced sale would present major complications.

Among those with deep enough pockets, US tech giants such as Instagram-parent Meta or Google would likely be blocked from buying the app over competition concerns.

Further, many investors consider TikTok’s recommendation algorithm to be its most valuable feature.

But any sale of such technology by a Chinese company would require approval from Beijing, which designated such algorithms as protected technology following Trump’s attempt to ban TikTok in 2020.

Beijing has so far vocally opposed any forced sale of TikTok, saying it will take all necessary measures to protect Chinese companies.

While TikTok is a global phenomenon, it represents a small fraction of ByteDance’s revenue, according to analysts and investors. 

ByteDance has enjoyed explosive growth in recent years, becoming one of the most valuable companies in the world. Its international investors, including US firms General Atlantic and SIG as well as Japan’s SoftBank, have stakes worth billions.

“TikTok US is a very small part of the overall business. It is an exciting part of the story, for sure, but… relative to the overall size, it’s a very small part,” ByteDance investor Mitchell Green, of US-based Lead Edge Capital, told CNBC television last month.

“If it was kicked out of the US, we would not sell.”

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Five things we learned at the China Auto Show

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The consumer tech giant is the latest entrant to China's cut-throat EV market, with its new SU7 model the star of the show
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One of China’s largest auto shows kicked off in Beijing on Thursday, with electric vehicle makers keen to show off their latest designs and high-tech accessories to consumers in the fiercely competitive market.

Here are the key developments from Auto China’s first day of action:

– Xiaomi –

The consumer tech giant is the latest entrant to China’s cut-throat EV market, with its new SU7 model the star of the show.

Less than one month after its launch, almost 76,000 pre-orders have been placed, Xiaomi said, an accumulation of orders that will take months to deliver given its current production capacity.

Xiaomi boss Lei Jun was swarmed at Auto China on Thursday by legions of loyal fans, eager to follow the entrepreneur’s every move around the convention complex.

– XPeng –

Among car giant Tesla’s main rivals in the Chinese market is XPeng, which announced plans to begin large-scale deployment of AI-assisted driving in its vehicles in May.

“The AI learns the driver’s habits and can then imitate their driving” and enhance security, company boss He Xiaopeng told an audience while presenting the X9, a seven-seater “so spacious it can accommodate five bicycles in its trunk”.

– CATL –

Also present at the show was Chinese battery giant CATL, founded in 2011 in the eastern city of Ningde and now the undisputed global leader in EV batteries.

Its factories produce more than a third of car batteries sold worldwide and are equipped in models from a long line of foreign manufacturers including Mercedes, BMW, VW, Tesla, Toyota, Honda and Hyundai.

Responding Thursday to one of the main criticisms of EVs — long charging times that restrict mobility — CATL announced a remedy: “Shenxing Plus”, an ultra-fast battery pack that the firm says earns one kilometre (0.62 miles) in range for every second of charging.

– Nio –

In contrast to much of the EV industry, Chinese automaker Nio focuses on battery-swap technology rather than recharging individual vehicles.

The Shanghai-based firm founded 10 years ago said Thursday it had accumulated nearly 2,500 battery swapping points across China.

Nio also presented its ET7, a sedan model the firm claims has a range of 1,000 kilometres.

– Tencent-Toyota alliance –

Japanese auto-making juggernaut Toyota also announced Thursday that it would join hands with Chinese tech and gaming giant Tencent in AI, a bid to capitalise on local consumers’ increasing appetite for advanced smart car features.

The cooperation will apply to Toyota vehicles sold in China, said Toyota, which like other foreign manufacturers, has struggled to keep up in the ultra-competitive market as the industry shifts to electric.

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US to give Micron $6.1 bn for American chip factories

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US lawmakers have approved billions of dollars to support the onshoring of semiconductor production
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Micron is set to receive up to $6.1 billion in grants from the US government to help build its semiconductor plants in New York and Idaho, the White House said Thursday.

The award, to be announced by President Joe Biden as he travels to Syracuse, New York, is the latest in a series of efforts by Washington to bring semiconductor production back to the country.

The United States has been working to ensure its lead in the chip industry, especially with regards to the development of artificial intelligence — both on national security grounds and in the face of competition with China.

The investment will help Micron “bring back leading-edge memory chip manufacturing to the United States for the first time in 20 years,” Chuck Schumer of New York, the Senate majority leader, told reporters.

The $6.1 billion in direct funding comes under the CHIPS and Science Act, a major package of funding and tax incentives passed by Congress in 2022 to boost research and US semiconductor production.

The White House said the funds will go to supporting construction of two facilities in Clay, New York, and one in Boise, Idaho, where Micron is headquartered.

The US Commerce Department will also make up to $7.5 billion in proposed loans available under a preliminary deal.

Micron is set to invest up to $125 billion across both states over the next two decades “to build a leading-edge memory manufacturing ecosystem,” according to the White House.

The US chipmaker’s total investment is due to create more than 70,000 jobs, including 20,000 direct construction and manufacturing roles.

– Supply chain shocks –

While semiconductors were invented in the United States, the White House noted that the country makes just around 10 percent of the world’s chips now — and “none of the most advanced ones.”

Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra called the step a “historic moment” for US semiconductor manufacturing, saying its US investments will “create many high-tech jobs.”

“Leading-edge memory chips are foundational to all advanced technologies,” said Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo.

She added that returning the development and production of advanced memory semiconductor technology to the country is “crucial for safeguarding our leadership on artificial intelligence and protecting our economic and national security.”

Chips are needed in powering everything from smartphones to fighter jets, and are increasingly in demand by automakers, especially for electric vehicles.

But the global chip industry is dominated by just a few firms, including TSMC in Taiwan and California-based Nvidia.

The United States is dependent on Asia for chip production, making it vulnerable to supply chain shocks, such as during the Covid-19 pandemic or in the event of a major geopolitical crisis.

“We’re already seeing AI revolutionize our world and grow at an unprecedented pace,” said Schumer. 

“We cannot, cannot have these chips made overseas, especially by competitors like China. We cannot have them be the only supplier,” he added.

Apart from the grants to Micron, Biden is also expected to announce four new “workforce hubs” in the Upstate New York region, the state of Michigan, as well as the cities of Philadelphia and Milwaukee.

According to senior government officials, such hubs are a way to spur more commitments from employers and educational institutions.

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