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Hong Kong economy faces uncertain future 25 years after handover

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Hong Kong is one of the world's top financial hubs, but its economy faces an uncertain future 25 years after it transitioned from British to Chinese rule
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When Hong Kong transitioned from British to Chinese rule, Edmond Hui was a floor trader at the bustling stock exchange, witnessing the roaring growth of a city at the crossroads of the West and Asia.

Under a deal signed with Britain ahead of the 1997 handover, China promised Hong Kong could keep its capitalist system for 50 years, an arrangement that helped the city thrive as one of the world’s top financial hubs.

Friday marks the halfway point of that experiment, with uncertainty clouding the economic future of Hong Kong — a city reliant on an increasingly isolated China, struggling to shake off the reputational damage from political unrest and pandemic-induced border closures.

Hui, now the chief executive of a mid-tier stockbroker with nearly 300 employees, said post-handover markets have undergone a drastic shift, becoming more China-focused than ever.

“Before 1997, foreign capital propped up half of the market,” he said. “After 1997, things changed gradually until the whole market was held up by Chinese capital.”

China’s meteoric rise in the past two decades yielded vast benefits for Hong Kong, which became the gateway for mainland firms to raise funds and for foreign businesses to access what is today the world’s second-largest economy.

“Hong Kong was sort of a poster child of free trade and open markets,” veteran pro-Beijing Hong Kong politician Regina Ip told AFP.

But the interlocking of its fate with China has also led to warnings about overreliance and complacency.

Chinese companies made up around 80 percent of the market capitalisation in Hong Kong’s stock market this year, up from 16 percent in 1997.

And Chinese firms now account for seven of the top 10 holdings of the benchmark Hang Seng Index, which used to be anchored by homegrown brands such as Cathay Pacific and Television Broadcasts Limited.

Hong Kong’s GDP, meanwhile, has gone from being equivalent to 18 percent of mainland China’s in 1997 to less than three percent in 2020.

Hui greeted this comprehensive shift with a mild shrug.

“It’s just a matter of changing who’s boss,” he said.

“We can only hope that our country’s momentum will surpass that of Europe and the United States.”

– ‘The gateway to China’ –

As China’s economic and political power has grown over the last few decades, so have tensions with Western nations — which has also affected Hong Kong.

Beijing cracked down on dissent in the city after massive democracy protests in 2019, prompting the United States to revoke Hong Kong’s preferential trade status on the grounds that it was no longer autonomous enough.

Washington also sanctioned some Hong Kong officials.  

“Back in 1997, we were able to play the role of a very important middleman. But now… everyone has more doubts about our background,” Yan Wai-hin, an economics lecturer at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, told AFP.

“If a trading partner feels that (Hong Kong) isn’t a neutral middleman… then the mutual trust might be lost.”

Yan said regional rivals such as Singapore were looking to capitalise on what they saw as an opening to supplant Hong Kong.  

Adding to that pressure, the tightening of political control has also meant Hong Kong has stuck to mainland China’s zero-Covid policy.

Stringent travel restrictions have kept the business hub cut off both from China and the world for the last two years, with authorities acknowledging it has prompted a talent exodus. 

But Ip said once restrictions were lifted, Hong Kong would recover.

“Our extremely advantageous geographical location is still there,” she said.

“We’re still the gateway to China.”

– ‘Complacent and insular’ –

Some industries other than finance, though, have struggled after the handover. 

“In the past 10 years or so, our GDP growth has lost steam and I think this had to do with Hong Kongers being complacent and insular,” said Simon Ho, president of the Hang Seng University of Hong Kong.

The city’s port, for instance, was among the world’s busiest for decades but has slipped in the rankings after peaking in 2004.

“The government took a neoliberal, non-interventionist approach, and there was no blueprint for developing industries and the economy,” Ho added.

He said authorities had devoted resources to sectors such as research and development, but that the results were “half-baked” and not competitive enough when compared with neighbouring tech hub Shenzhen.

“Hong Kong needs to figure out its role,” Ho said.

“In the past, we didn’t know how to complement the mainland, and in some cases even competed with it. In the long run, that will only get harder.” 

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Are realtors too valuable to be disrupted by technology?

Tens of billions of venture capital dollars go into proptech every year. But realtors remain critical middlemen for most consumers. Is this just the way it will always be? Here’s a look at how tech is changing residential real estate – and how it’s not.

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The tech industry repeatedly sees itself as a disruptor — particularly of industries with inefficient models with unnecessary costs baked in.

Why shouldn’t real estate be a prime target for tech?

As Forbes notes:

“Real estate is the only mammoth-size market remaining in which middlemen (brokers/agents) have complete control of the process. The operative members of the transaction (buyers/sellers) are withheld from direct communication and limited in resources and transparency. They are at the mercy of the middlemen in a world where other industries are constantly being refreshed, redesigned, and automated.”

Still, Canadian (and American) realtors are, to date, disruption resistant. Canadian realtors extract billions in value every year for their work. This is just how real estate works in this country, but it is kind of odd. Especially because Canada’s housing crisis is exactly that: a crisis.

Canada needs to build 3.5 million extra homes by 2030 to ensure affordable housing for everyone living in the country. That’s on top of the expected build out of 2.3 million homes that are currently planned.

That’s a shocking number when you consider the United States, with ten times the population, is short a relatively modest 6.5 million homes.

This housing gap means some version of the following story is happening in Canada basically every single week:

A seller wants to put their home on the market. They sign with a realtor who shares data on how to price the property, photographs it, lists it on MLS and advertises it. Depending on the seller, the realtor may provide significant guidance on the process of selling a home. People tend to get nervous when they’re selling their single biggest asset.

Still, the whole process can be over in a matter of weeks — a win for sellers, presumably. Well, sort of.

This process can be efficient in a hot market, but it also leaves many sellers with an odd taste in their mouths as they watch their realtor and their buyer’s realtor walk away with commissions of thousands, if not tens of thousands, of their dollars.

So, why hasn’t tech made more headway in bleeding out these seemingly unnecessary costs for buyers and sellers?

It’s not for a lack of new models, innovation, and capital spending. Investors allocated more than $32 billion USD into proptech companies in 2021. (‘Proptech’ just means technology solutions that enable the buying and selling of residential and commercial real estate). By 2028, the global proptech market is expected to reach $64.3 billion USD.

The investment is there. But so are the realtors. So, what changes are happening?

Proptech platforms are creating more informed buyers and sellers

Consumers are seeing the results of the money that has poured into proptech over the last decade. During the home-buying frenzy that followed a certain pandemic, many buyers toured properties virtually, and made buying decisions without ever being inside the place they’d soon call home.

But that’s just the latest evolution of real estate technology for consumers. Much of the first wave of proptech has already become second nature for many of us. We all have access to powerful, data-driven tools and platforms to aid us when it’s time to buy or sell.

Just a few examples:

  • Zillow is a one-stop digital marketplace that serves home buyers and sellers, as well as renters and landlords. It goes well beyond MLS, with deep resources and functionality like property valuation estimates. It’s the largest real estate website in the U.S. with over 60 million monthly views – and it’s increasingly popular in Canada.
  • Redfin is a real estate brokerage that offers lower than standard brokerage fees for its agents to sell residential homes. The company operates in both Canada and the U.S.
  • Trulia is similar to Zillow but offers additional functionality like crime maps by area, neighborhood profiles, and estimated monthly property upkeep costs. Trulia was acquired by Zillow in 2014 but continues to run as a separate platform.
  • Bōde is a Canadian platform that enables sellers to list their properties for free. Then they market the listing on platforms like Zillow and MLS. When a buyer and seller connect, Bōde facilitates the sale of the home and charges a 1% fee (up to a maximum of $10,000) on the final sale price. No realtor is involved.

While consumers love platforms like these and are doing more research on their own, they still gravitate to realtors when it comes time to sell or buy. A recent CBC article noted that:

“While specific numbers are hard to come by, all indications suggest that private sales make up a tiny sliver of overall real estate deals in Canada. For example, For Sale By Owner recently had some 116 listings in all of Ontario, while some mid-sized cities in the province showed more than 1,000 on MLS.”

Change is coming for everyone – from buyers to sellers to realtors

Still, the forecasts suggest this initial wave of proptech innovation may lead to more significant changes in the years to come. 

A much-quoted Oxford University study from 2013 found that “automation is projected to replace 50% of all current jobs in the next two decades. The same study predicts automation is 86% likely to replace traditional “real estate sales agents” and 97% likely to replace “real estate brokers”.” By late 2020, technology had replaced over 60 million jobs in the U.S. alone, with the World Economic Forum predicting tens of millions more to come, with fully 50% of jobs done by machines by 2025. 

It’s clear that the rate of automation isn’t exactly slowing down.

Blockchain, the distributed ledger that promises to destroy unnecessary middlemen across industries, offers the potential ability to reduce the need for realtors, through its ability to protect against fraudulent activity through decentralized smart contracts. 

But widespread adoption of blockchain technology hasn’t happened in any major industry, much less a massive asset class like real estate. And blockchain alone doesn’t eliminate the need for home buyers and sellers to get expert counsel from someone during a transaction.

And AI has promise and potential, sure. It can already do things with data that no human can. But buyers and sellers seem to consistently value empathy, human interaction, negotiation skills, and a realtor’s personalized knowledge of a community or property type. This is especially true when someone is making the life-altering choice to buy or sell a house. If it was your house, would you want the robot or the person?

So far, most Canadians are choosing the person. (The same is even true with another major life purchase, as we’ve recently reported.)

But there are more changes afoot.

Think back to that theoretical seller that sees their house sold in days and in return sacrifices tens of thousands of dollars in commissions. Is that a good deal for them? Maybe not.

That insight is at the root of Bid My Listing, a new startup from entrepreneur Matt Proman and real estate bigwig Josh Altman.

Bid My Listing enables sellers to solicit bids from realtors to list their house. As Proman told Entrepreneur.com:

“I had a lot of agents knocking on my door, leaving their business cards that they wanted to represent me in the transaction.”

Proman thought his Long Island home would move quickly and signed a six-month exclusive listing agreement with an agent. “I waited and waited and waited,” he said. “And I watched two other houses sell on my block.”

“I said, ‘I will never, for any of my other houses, give my listing away for free. The next time the agents have to put their money where their mouth is and have skin in the game.

So, while realtors may exist long into Canada’s real estate future, tech may eventually create major changes in their roles and how they’re compensated. They’re likely to find themselves having to adapt to a changing landscape where buyers and sellers want more value for the commissions they pay on a real estate transaction.

If they’re willing to pay them at all.

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Tech agility and relationship building among pillars of digital transformation for CIOs, HBR report finds

A look at HBR’s recent report about the changing role of CIOs and building resilience in digital transformation

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HBR recently released a report (sponsored by Red Hat as part of The Enterprisers Project), on the changing roles and landscapes of Chief Information Officers (CIOs) leading organizations through digital transformation

The goal? Resilience. 

Specifically, resilience in an organization’s people, business processes, and tech infrastructure. 

But don’t get too caught up in the tech just yet. As UC Dublin business professor Joe Peppard is quoted in the report, “digital transformation is less a technology challenge and more a leadership one.”

HBR shares how CIOs can step up to the plate with leadership that fosters resilience amidst digital transformation:

Adaptability for CIOs and the organizations they lead

Digital transformation is a response to change, whether that change is innovation, customer demands, or industry trends. Today’s CIO must prepare their organizations to adapt to those changes, specifically: 

  • Adapt new processes to speed up product development
  • Collaborate to create new business models
  • Respond faster to client demands
  • Experiment and pivot quickly
  • Attract and retain IT talent

To achieve all that, the role of CIO has quickly expanded its job duties. Indeed, 89% of CIOs feel their role has become “more important,” the report found, while 88% agree their role is the most “critical component” of their organization’s sustenance. 

What do these expanded duties look like, apart from leading adaptable organizations? The CIO is an educator, coach, strategic adviser, entrepreneur, relationship builder, and change agent. HBR even includes “evangelist” in the mix. 

Managing expectations, relationships, and talent

Communication and relationship building are increasingly important, even in a tech-dominated industry. HBR cites an IDC statement that CIOs will even out inflation, shortages, and other economic changes through negotiations and relationship building. 

Of course, that communication is vital internally as well. CIOs need to lead staff, managers, and executives through pivoting plans, unpredictable results, and changing expectations. How? Through empathy, a vital component in supporting a successful organization and successful professionals within one. This also includes fostering safety, diversity, personal growth, inclusion, and autonomy for experimentation, and learning from failures. 

Finally, there comes the talent — starting at recruitment, all the way to career development and flexible work arrangements for IT staff. 

Making tech more agile

CIOs can’t do this on their own. However, they can embrace transformation tools and support their organization using them. HBR cites a PwC study on strategies for adapting to new tech tools, including: 

  • Making an IT strategy more agile
  • Using infrastructure investment to move to the cloud
  • Leveraging data and analytics to inform strategic decisions

CIOs aren’t just responsible for securing the new tech. They also need to strategically and operationally decide how to best harness each tech’s capabilities. The answer comes from the entire organization, as business operations and IT become unsiloed to support better collaboration. 

Read the full report

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Why aren’t more people buying their cars online?

A 2021 Carfax survey found that only 8% of buyers want to buy their next new or used car online.

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The Covid-19 pandemic drove us into quarantine and lockdowns, and if you happened to be in the market for a new or used car, you probably weren’t schlepping to a dealership to make the purchase in-person. Rather, online transactions increased, and some say that’s the direction automotive retail we’ll continue to go.

According to a study by Capital One Auto Navigator, 56 percent of car dealers stepped up their use of digital tools in response to the pandemic. A Think with Google article said 63 percent of auto purchasers would consider ordering their next car online.

Besides Tesla’s online-only sales, online car sales have been around for some time, with various outlets including Cardoor.ca, Canadadrives.ca, Clutch.ca, Carnex.ca, Carvana and Vroom. But the pandemic served “as a catalyst to accelerate this transformation,” said Jessica Stafford, Senior Vice President, Consumer Solutions, Cox Automotive.

A 2022 study from Cox revealed that 81 percent of car shoppers felt that learning about their car online “improved the overall buying experience.” That included locating a dealer, looking up prices, finding vehicle specs, financing qualifications, investigating insurance products, and more.

“Amazon has trained consumers to be accustomed to being able to order whatever they need, not considering where it came from so long as they receive it in a timeframe that suits them, the price is within their budget, and the item is returnable,” she said. “This macro trend is now influencing car purchasing behavior with consumers open to receiving their cars from somewhere beyond their local market, as long as other conditions are favorable. In fact, many consumers now expect this, and are willing to pay a premium for some of these services.”

Cox’s data reveals buyers who complete more than 50 percent of the car shopping journey online were the most satisfied among all buyers. Reinforcing this view, Vog App Developers is expecting web-based apps for car consumers to become more the norm. That’s confirmed in this piece by Semetrical, that said nearly half of consumers are using their mobile devices to research their new car. 

Unfortunately, the industry isn’t keeping up. OSF Digital reported that almost eighty per cent of dealerships’ websites lacked the functionality for proper vehicle searches, and just over five per cent had 360-view photographs of their stock.

Michael Carmichael, president and CEO of UpAuto.ca, said that though there’s a big push from auto makers and dealers to develop the online funnel, “there is very little demand. It’s the biggest solution looking for a problem.” He believes “the emotional tie to an auto purchase is reduced dramatically. People want to come to see the car themselves and they want a relationship with the seller.” 

On the one hand, the online factor “plays a big role in an educational perspective — people doing their homework, [getting] information, and lots of pictures, and detail.” 

On the other hand, however, there are too many drawbacks: “How does my child seat fit in the back? What if it’s a smoker’s car? You can return it, but who wants to go through that hassle? It’s a lot of money,” says Carmichael.  

And he may be right: according to a 2021 Carfax Canada survey, only eight percent of Canadian buyers of new or used vehicles want to buy their next vehicle online. 

One challenge he has faced is attempted digital fraud — two attempts in recent weeks — an issue he says is rampant. “There still has to be a signature, and someone has to validate that you are who you say you are,” noting that as a lingering problem with online sales. By the end of 2021, digital fraud had been twice the problem in Canada than anywhere else in the world.

Sam Lee, Carnex.ca’s finance manager, sees things differently. 

“Purchasing a vehicle online is very straightforward,” he said. “It includes the vehicle’s imperfections and often, a good return policy. “What I see is the best model would be a hybrid system,” or more of an omnichannel approach. “In-person dealerships are time-consuming with pushy salespeople.”

EpicVin has delivered vehicle history reports for car buyers and displays used cars online, while working with hundreds of dealerships. Alex Black, its Chief Marketing Officer, says that photographs of cars have improved over time, as sellers have become more marketing savvy. 

“Nowadays, using the VR technologies, one can even create a model of a perfect car and to order it. So we can definitely say that the world of technologies introduced significant changes in the online car selling process.” On this point, the US Automotive Dealership Benchmark Study saw a direct correlation of sales to VR availability.

Zach Klempf, founder and CEO of Selly Automotive, is an automotive market contributor who has been featured in CNBC, Forbes, and other outlets. 

“For the part of the industry where there is more wear and tear on the car, it gets hard to sell that entirely online,” he explained. “But if it’s a commodity like a brand new Camry or Corolla under warranty, no major incidents, there is a market for it. Some consumers go into dealerships 

and completely change their mind on the car they want to buy once they see it and physically drive it.”

But things are looking a bit shaky for the online car industry, with volatile economic factors, noted Geoff Cudd, the CEO and founder of Find the Best Car Price. “With a diminishing supply of vehicles for sale, and the highest interest rates seen in years, the average price of a car is out of reach for the typical buyer. This is hurting all dealerships, but especially the online dealerships who overpaid to acquire vehicles from customers and they are now being forced to downsize in order to stay afloat.”  

Betakit in January confirmed as such, reporting that layoffs have been increasing in the market. 

Clutch and Canada Drives recently announced staff cuts, citing poor economic conditions. A representative from Clutch blamed a variety of factors, including “rising rates, supply chain disruptions, and volatile pricing.” 

New York Times reported that Carvana took a quarterly loss of more than a half-billion dollars, and laid off four thousand staff. In the past year, used car values have dropped 20 percent, leaving dealers to offload stock for far less than they paid, according to the Times. Cox Automotive said that 2023 sales will likely be half of the year before.

It looks like in-person shopping is here to stay, at least in the foreseeable: “There is still a general resistance by dealerships to complete the entire transaction online. Most dealers still push for an in-person meeting where they are more confident that the sales process will result in additional sales of high-margin items for the dealership,” said Cudd.

The Covid-19 pandemic drove us into quarantine and lockdowns, and if you happened to be in the market for a new or used car, you probably weren’t schlepping to a dealership to make the purchase in-person. Rather, online transactions increased, and some say that’s the direction automotive retail we’ll continue to go.

According to a study by Capital One Auto Navigator, 56 percent of car dealers stepped up their use of digital tools in response to the pandemic. A Think with Google article said 63 percent of auto purchasers would consider ordering their next car online.

Besides Tesla’s online-only sales, online car sales have been around for some time, with various outlets including Cardoor.ca, Canadadrives.ca, Clutch.ca, Carnex.ca, Carvana and Vroom. But the pandemic served “as a catalyst to accelerate this transformation,” said Jessica Stafford, Senior Vice President, Consumer Solutions, Cox Automotive.

A 2022 study from Cox revealed that 81 percent of car shoppers felt that learning about their car online “improved the overall buying experience.” That included locating a dealer, looking up prices, finding vehicle specs, financing qualifications, investigating insurance products, and more.

“Amazon has trained consumers to be accustomed to being able to order whatever they need, not considering where it came from so long as they receive it in a timeframe that suits them, the price is within their budget, and the item is returnable,” she said. “This macro trend is now influencing car purchasing behavior with consumers open to receiving their cars from somewhere beyond their local market, as long as other conditions are favorable. In fact, many consumers now expect this, and are willing to pay a premium for some of these services.”

Cox’s data reveals buyers who complete more than 50 percent of the car shopping journey online were the most satisfied among all buyers. Reinforcing this view, Vog App Developers is expecting web-based apps for car consumers to become more the norm. That’s confirmed in this piece by Semetrical, that said nearly half of consumers are using their mobile devices to research their new car. 

Unfortunately, the industry isn’t keeping up. OSF Digital reported that almost eighty per cent of dealerships’ websites lacked the functionality for proper vehicle searches, and just over five per cent had 360-view photographs of their stock.

Michael Carmichael, president and CEO of UpAuto.ca, said that though there’s a big push from auto makers and dealers to develop the online funnel, “there is very little demand. It’s the biggest solution looking for a problem.” He believes “the emotional tie to an auto purchase is reduced dramatically. People want to come to see the car themselves and they want a relationship with the seller.” 

On the one hand, the online factor “plays a big role in an educational perspective — people doing their homework, [getting] information, and lots of pictures, and detail.” 

On the other hand, however, there are too many drawbacks: “How does my child seat fit in the back? What if it’s a smoker’s car? You can return it, but who wants to go through that hassle? It’s a lot of money,” says Carmichael.  

And he may be right: according to a 2021 Carfax Canada survey, only eight percent of Canadian buyers of new or used vehicles want to buy their next vehicle online. 

One challenge he has faced is attempted digital fraud — two attempts in recent weeks — an issue he says is rampant. “There still has to be a signature, and someone has to validate that you are who you say you are,” noting that as a lingering problem with online sales. By the end of 2021, digital fraud had been twice the problem in Canada than anywhere else in the world.

Sam Lee, Carnex.ca’s finance manager, sees things differently. 

“Purchasing a vehicle online is very straightforward,” he said. “It includes the vehicle’s imperfections and often, a good return policy. “What I see is the best model would be a hybrid system,” or more of an omnichannel approach. “In-person dealerships are time-consuming with pushy salespeople.”

EpicVin has delivered vehicle history reports for car buyers and displays used cars online, while working with hundreds of dealerships. Alex Black, its Chief Marketing Officer, says that photographs of cars have improved over time, as sellers have become more marketing savvy. 

“Nowadays, using the VR technologies, one can even create a model of a perfect car and to order it. So we can definitely say that the world of technologies introduced significant changes in the online car selling process.” On this point, the US Automotive Dealership Benchmark Study saw a direct correlation of sales to VR availability.

Zach Klempf, founder and CEO of Selly Automotive, is an automotive market contributor who has been featured in CNBC, Forbes, and other outlets. 

“For the part of the industry where there is more wear and tear on the car, it gets hard to sell that entirely online,” he explained. “But if it’s a commodity like a brand new Camry or Corolla under warranty, no major incidents, there is a market for it. Some consumers go into dealerships 

and completely change their mind on the car they want to buy once they see it and physically drive it.”

But things are looking a bit shaky for the online car industry, with volatile economic factors, noted Geoff Cudd, the CEO and founder of Find the Best Car Price. “With a diminishing supply of vehicles for sale, and the highest interest rates seen in years, the average price of a car is out of reach for the typical buyer. This is hurting all dealerships, but especially the online dealerships who overpaid to acquire vehicles from customers and they are now being forced to downsize in order to stay afloat.”  

Betakit in January confirmed as such, reporting that layoffs have been increasing in the market. 

Clutch and Canada Drives recently announced staff cuts, citing poor economic conditions. A representative from Clutch blamed a variety of factors, including “rising rates, supply chain disruptions, and volatile pricing.” 

New York Times reported that Carvana took a quarterly loss of more than a half-billion dollars, and laid off four thousand staff. In the past year, used car values have dropped 20 percent, leaving dealers to offload stock for far less than they paid, according to the Times. Cox Automotive said that 2023 sales will likely be half of the year before.

It looks like in-person shopping is here to stay, at least in the foreseeable: “There is still a general resistance by dealerships to complete the entire transaction online. Most dealers still push for an in-person meeting where they are more confident that the sales process will result in additional sales of high-margin items for the dealership,” said Cudd.

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